2023年8月22日讀畢需時 9 分鐘

澳洲房价升势不减，房租回落却遥遥无期

Australian property prices continue to rise without slowing down, while the prospect of rental reductions remains distant.

墨尔本

一周房产资讯速递

Melbourne Weekly Real Estate News

▪ 银行预测明年墨尔本房价将上涨9.4%

Banks Forecast 9.4% Rise in Melbourne Property Prices Next Year

▪ 澳洲房租回落仍遥遥无期

Australian Rental Downturn Remains Distant

▪ 一周拍卖

Weekly Auction

1.银行预测明年墨尔本房价将上涨9.4%

Banks Forecast 9.4% Rise in Melbourne Property Prices Next Year

各家银行对未来16个月内墨尔本房价做出了不同的预测。澳新银行最为保守，预计到2023年底，房价可能下降不到0.5%，然后在2024年上涨1%。西太平洋银行预计今年房价会上涨3%，明年将再上涨4%。CBA的数据显示，今年房价在12月30日前可能上涨3%，然后在2024年上涨6%。而NAB最为激进，预计今年年底房价将上涨2%，加上明年的7.4%，总体将增长9.4%。

Different banks have made varying predictions for Melbourne property prices over the next 16 months. ANZ Bank is the most conservative, expecting prices to potentially decrease by less than 0.5% by the end of 2023 and then rise by 1% in 2024. West Pacific Bank forecasts a 3% increase in prices this year and a further 4% increase next year. According to CBA's data, prices may increase by 3% before December 30th this year and then rise by 6% in 2024. NAB, on the other hand, is the most bullish, anticipating a 2% increase by the end of this year and a cumulative 9.4% increase with an additional 7.4% next year.

根据PropTrack的数据，目前墨尔本的独立屋中位价为87.5万澳元，公寓的中位价为59.5万澳元。Ray White的首席经济学家Nerida Conisbee表示，今年剩下的时间房价可能会有一些波动，但在新的一年里可能会上涨，尤其是在利率下降的情况下。现在有很多房产进入市场，这正好是抵押贷款的高峰期。

Based on PropTrack's data, the median price for detached houses in Melbourne is currently AUD 875,000, while the median price for apartments is AUD 595,000. Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at Ray White, suggests that there might be some fluctuations in prices for the remaining time of this year, but she expects prices to rise in the coming year, especially with the decline in interest rates. The current influx of properties into the market coincides with the peak of mortgage applications.

Wakelin Property Advisory的总Jarrod McCabe认为，要实现更积极的预测，不仅需要提高成交率，还需要降低利率。他表示，为了达到近10%的增长，可能需要将利率下降超过0.25个百分点，甚至可能需要下降0.5%到1%。他对澳新银行1%的增长预测充满信心，并预计实际情况可能会超过这个预测，这是基于目前拍卖市场的状况。

Jarrod McCabe, Director of Wakelin Property Advisory, believes that achieving more optimistic predictions requires not only an increase in transaction rates but also a decrease in interest rates. He states that to achieve nearly 10% growth, interest rates might need to decrease by more than 0.25 percentage points, possibly even by 0.5% to 1%. He is confident in ANZ Bank's 1% growth prediction and expects that the actual situation might surpass this forecast, based on the current auction market conditions.

Barry Plant的执行董事Mike McCarthy表示，如果联邦政府计划在从2024年7月1日起的五年内建造120万套新房的目标取得成功，这将为住房行业注入一定程度的信心。但他也指出，仍然需要解决劳动力和材料方面的重大问题，不仅仅是简化规划流程和减少繁文缛节。

Mike McCarthy, Executive Director of Barry Plant, suggests that if the federal government's plan to build 1.2 million new homes over five years starting from July 1, 2024, is successful, it will inject some confidence back into the housing industry. However, he points out that significant challenges still need to be addressed in terms of labor and materials, not just simplifying planning processes and reducing bureaucracy.

综合来看，墨尔本房地产市场未来的走势仍然具有不确定性，各家银行的预测也存在差异。市场供需关系、利率变动以及政府政策的影响都将在未来的发展中起到重要作用。而对于普通买家来说，银行对房价的预测是一个重要的参考因素，普通买家可以从根据自己的财务能力、长期投资目标来选择购房的时机。

Overall, the future trajectory of Melbourne's real estate market remains uncertain, and there are discrepancies in predictions from different banks. Market supply and demand dynamics, interest rate changes, and the impact of government policies will all play important roles in future developments. For ordinary buyers, bank predictions on property prices are crucial reference points, helping them choose the right timing for purchasing based on their financial capacity and long-term investment goals.

2. 澳洲房租回落仍遥遥无期

Australian Rental Downturn Remains Distant

尽管政府采取了一系列措施，如制定住房供应目标和限制租金上涨频率，但专家普遍认为，租金上涨的问题在未来两年内可能仍然会持续存在。这表明租金市场的供需关系目前仍不平衡，可能需要更长时间才能真正调整。

Despite the government's implementation of various measures, such as setting housing supply targets and limiting the frequency of rent increases, experts widely believe that the issue of rising rents might persist over the next two years. This suggests that the supply and demand dynamics in the rental market remain imbalanced, and a longer period might be needed for a true adjustment.

CoreLogic的研究总监Tim Lawless说：“我认为将租金上涨限制为每年一次不会帮助租房市场，因为大多数房东已经这么做了。租金的主要变化通常发生在租客更替的期间，因此从这个角度来看，这似乎是个无关紧要的改变。”

Tim Lawless, Research Director at CoreLogic, stated, "I don't think capping rental increases to once a year will help the rental market, as most landlords are already doing it. The most significant changes in rents usually occur during tenant turnovers, so from that perspective, it seems like a relatively insignificant change."

在住房供应方面，咨询公司Charter Keck Cramer的全国执行董事Richard Temlett表示，如果没有政府进一步的激励措施，未来五年内实现120万套住房的目标将是一个挑战。他说：“他们需要通过取消税收和费用、简化规划流程，并允许国内外投资者重新参与新房市场，以激励市场。虽然这需要一些时间，但这有助于确保政府的远大目标得以实现。”

On the housing supply side, Richard Temlett, National Executive Director at Charter Keck Cramer, noted that achieving the target of building 1.2 million new homes over the next five years would be a challenge without further government incentives. He mentioned, "They need to incentivize the market by removing taxes and fees, streamlining planning processes, and allowing domestic and foreign investors to re-enter the new home market. While this will take time, it will contribute to achieving the ambitious government goals."

Lawless先生表示，120万套住房确实能解决问题，但实际上，在未来几年内建造如此多的房屋是一个巨大的挑战。他解释道：“我们过去从未在五年内建造过这么多房屋，至少在未来几年内，这将是一个相当大的挑战。住房审批数量低于平均水平，并且没有显示出任何改善的迹象。建筑成本仍然很高，而且熟练的建筑工人短缺。因此，在我们加大住房建设之前，还有很多基本问题需要解决，这需要时间。”

Mr. Lawless stated that 1.2 million new homes could indeed address the issue, but practically, building such a substantial number of homes in the coming years poses a significant challenge. He explained, "We've never built this many homes within five years before, and at least in the next few years, it will be quite a challenge. Housing approvals are below average, and there's no sign of improvement. Construction costs remain high, and there's a shortage of skilled construction workers. So, there are many fundamental issues to address before we ramp up housing construction, and this will take time."

为了实现这个目标，每年需要建造240,000套房屋，但Lawless指出，截至2017年3月的过去12个月里，年度竣工量最高仅达到220,649套。他补充说：“即使在2019年12月这五年建设高峰期，总共也只建成了108.6万套住房。”Temlett同样表示，即使有激励措施，考虑到调动供应方面的困难，未来两年租金短缺可能仍将持续。他说：“增加供应需要很长时间，所以不幸的是，在市场重新平衡之前，未来几年内一些城市的租金可能仍会以两位数的速度上涨。”

To achieve this goal, 240,000 homes need to be built annually, but Lawless pointed out that in the past 12 months up to March 2017, the highest annual completion was only 220,649 homes. He added, "Even during the peak of the five-year construction boom up to December 2019, a total of only 1.086 million homes were built." Temlett similarly expressed that despite incentives, considering the challenges in mobilizing supply, rental shortages might persist over the next two years. He stated, "Increasing supply takes a long time, so unfortunately, rental prices in some cities might continue to rise at double-digit rates until the market rebalances."

根据SQM Research的数据显示，在过去30天内，各首府城市的租金要价开始上升，上涨了1.2%，这是自4月份租金上涨趋势放缓以来的最大月度涨幅。租金再次上涨之际，全国空置出租房屋的数量减少了852套，降至38,864套，这是自今年1月以来的首次月度下降。

According to data from SQM Research, over the past 30 days, rental asking prices in major cities have started to rise, increasing by 1.2%, marking the largest monthly increase since the slowdown in rental growth in April. As rents rise again, the number of vacant rental properties nationwide decreased by 852 units to 38,864 units, the first monthly decline since January this year.

SQM Research的董事Louis Christopher表示：“由于出租物业仍然供不应求，租金肯定会再次上涨，而且目前需要住房的租户人数众多。随着人们回到办公室的步伐加快以及国际移民的增加，我们看到越来越多的租房者从偏远地区回到城市。”

Louis Christopher, Director of SQM Research, remarked, "Given the ongoing undersupply of rental properties, rents are certainly going to rise again, and there's a substantial number of tenants in need of housing. With the acceleration of people returning to offices and an increase in international immigration, we're seeing more renters returning to cities from remote areas."

悉尼、珀斯和霍巴特的可出租房屋数量也减少，导致空置率分别下降了0.1个百分点，分别降至1.6%、0.5%和1.8%。全国空置率保持在1.3%，但达尔文的空置率略微上升了0.1个百分点，达到1%。一般当空置率处于2.5%到3.5%之间时，租赁市场才被认为是平衡的。Christopher先生说：“在2023年上半年，空置率略微下降，这对租户来说可能有些令人失望。我们最初期望租赁市场继续保持宽松，但目前的情况似乎市场可能会再次变得紧张。”

Vacant rental property numbers in Sydney, Perth, and Hobart have also decreased, resulting in a 0.1 percentage point decrease in vacancy rates, now standing at 1.6%, 0.5%, and 1.8%, respectively. The national vacancy rate remains at 1.3%, but Darwin's vacancy rate has slightly risen by 0.1 percentage point to reach 1%. A rental market is considered balanced when the vacancy rate ranges from 2.5% to 3.5%. Christopher noted, "After a slight decline in vacancy rates in the first half of 2023, this might be disappointing for tenants. We initially expected the rental market to remain loose, but the current situation indicates that the market might tighten again."

截至8月12日的一个月内，墨尔本、珀斯和阿德莱德的租金涨幅最大，分别为1.7%、2.3%和1.4%。而上个月，租金只分别上涨了0.2%、0.4%和0.9%。在过去12个月里，全国51个独立屋和公寓市场的租金涨幅超过了20%。其中包括悉尼的Haymarket、Campsie、Belfield、Little Bay和Randwick，以及墨尔本的Kew East、Carnegie、Kew和Hughesdale。

In the month ending on August 12th, Melbourne, Perth, and Adelaide had the highest rental increases, reaching 1.7%, 2.3%, and 1.4% respectively. In comparison, last month, rents had only increased by 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.9% respectively. In the past 12 months, rents for 51 independent houses and apartment markets nationwide have surged by over 20%. This includes areas such as Haymarket, Campsie, Belfield, Little Bay, and Randwick in Sydney, as well as Kew East, Carnegie, Kew, and Hughesdale in Melbourne, according to data from CoreLogic.

3.一周拍卖

Weekly Auction

根据维多利亚房地产协会REIV（Real Estate Institute of Victoria）官方统计，截止8月20日周日，整个维州共进行了537场有结果的房产拍卖，总清盘率78%。

According to official statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), as of Sunday, August 20th, a total of 537 property auctions were conducted across the entire state of Victoria. The overall clearance rate stood at 78%.

接下来是拍卖的详细情况，在进行的总共537场拍卖中，共有418套房子成功出售！其中316套在拍卖会售出，101套在拍卖前售出，拍卖总价值4.88亿澳元。

Here are the detailed auction results: Out of the total 537 auctions held, a remarkable 418 properties were successfully sold. Among them, 316 properties were sold during the auction itself, and 101 were sold prior to the auction, contributing to a total auction value of AUD 488 million.