The more housing prices rise, the greater the profits for banks! The economy is being propelled by the housing boom driven by "banks"!
墨尔本
一周房产资讯速递
Melbourne Weekly Real Estate News
▪ 清仓率下降，但年前销售仍在继续
Clearance rates are decreasing, but sales continue before the year-end
▪ 经济正被 “银行”推动的住房繁荣所裹挟
The economy is being propelled by the housing boom driven by "banks"
1.清仓率下降，但年前销售仍在继续
Clearance rates are decreasing, but sales continue before the year-end
春季拍卖季即将结束，卖家和买家正在2023年结束之前争分夺秒地完成交易。清盘率下降，市场已经逐渐开始向买家转变。这种紧迫感意味着处于有利位置的房产将以高价成交，其中包括悉尼北海滩地区的一座六卧宅，成交价约比指导价高出100万澳元。
Clearance rates are decreasing, but sales continue before the year-end The spring auction season is coming to an end, and sellers and buyers are racing against the clock to complete transactions before the end of 2023. Clearance rates are decreasing, and the market is gradually shifting towards buyers. This sense of urgency means that well-positioned properties will be sold at high prices, including a six-bedroom house in the northern beaches of Sydney, which sold for about $1 million above the guide price.
这座位于Seaforth的12 Edgecliffe Esplanade的住宅在拍卖中以接近1200万澳元的价格成交，创下了该郊区今年的最高房价。
The residence at 12 Edgecliffe Esplanade in Seaforth was auctioned for just under $12 million, setting the highest price in the suburb this year.
全国初步清盘率下降了约3个百分点，降至65.9%，这是自三月中旬以来的最低水平，这表明销售优势方正在明显向买家转变，CoreLogic的Tim Lawless表示。“目前看来，销售条件很可能会持续变得更加宽松，一直到2024年。”
The national preliminary clearance rate has dropped by about 3 percentage points to 65.9%, the lowest since mid-March, indicating a clear shift in favor of buyers, as stated by Tim Lawless from CoreLogic. "At the moment, it's looking increasingly likely that selling conditions will continue to soften into 2024."
图片来源：Financial Review，图为位于Seaforth的12 Edgecliffe Esplanade的六居室
尽管总上市房屋数超过了五年平均水平，悉尼和墨尔本的初步清盘率仍然处于低于平均水平的状态。悉尼的初步清盘率从上周下降了30个基点，降至68.7%，而墨尔本则从68%下降到64.1%。根据CoreLogic的数据，虽然澳大利亚两大主要市场开始趋于疲软，但较小的州府城市仍然保持着强劲的竞拍活动。
Despite total listings surpassing the five-year average, Sydney and Melbourne's preliminary clearance rates remain below average. Sydney's preliminary clearance rate fell 30 basis points to 68.7% from last week, while Melbourne fell from 68% to 64.1%. According to CoreLogic data, while Australia's two major markets are starting to soften, smaller capital cities are still experiencing strong bidding activity.
阿德莱德和珀斯是较小的州府城市拍卖市场中表现最强劲的，两者均录得76.9%的初步清盘率。与此同时，根据CoreLogic的数据，布里斯班的清盘率略有上升，从58%升至升至61.7%。
Adelaide and Perth are the strongest among the smaller capital city auction markets, both recording a 76.9% preliminary clearance rate. Meanwhile, Brisbane's clearance rate rose slightly from 58% to 61.7%, based on 141 results collected so far, according to CoreLogic.
Ray White首席经济学家Nerida Conisbee也表示，住宅市场的部分区域开始对买家更加有利。Conisbee女士说：“市场确实更有利于首次购房者。现在有很多投资者在高利率环境下支付抵押贷款变得非常困难。虽然我们无法逐一确定，但我们确实听说有投资者在出售。这通常对首次购房者有利，但对租户不利，因为这会减少租赁市场的房源。”
Ray White Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee also said that parts of the residential market were starting to become more favorable for buyers. "The market is definitely favoring first homebuyers. There's a lot of investors now that are really struggling to pay mortgages in the higher interest rate environment. It's harder for us to track but we're definitely hearing of investors selling. That typically benefits first-time buyers but it doesn't benefit renters because it will take stock off the market for renters."
顶级买家代理David Morrell持不同看法，他表示在假期季节来临之前，买家和卖家仍在争取达成交易。Morrell先生表示，由于明年供应可能短缺的担忧，买家仍在争相寻找房屋，尤其是在距离圣诞节仅剩三个周末的情况下。他说：“买家担心如果在未来两到三周内找不到房产，那他们很可能要等到明年年中才有机会。他们目前谈论的不是利率，而是供应。”
Buyers' agent David Morrell took a different view, saying the pendulum had not swung towards favoring buyers as yet as buyers and sellers were trying to secure deals before the holiday season. Morrell said buyers were still scrambling to find homes, especially with only three more weekends to go until the start of Christmas, due to concerns about low supply next year. "Buyers are worried that if they don't find a property in the next two to three weeks, that it will be a 'That's All Folks' situation where they have to wait until the middle of the next year. They're not talking about interest rates, they're worried about supply."
2. 经济正被 “银行”推动的住房繁荣所裹挟
The economy is being propelled by the housing boom driven by "banks"
住房可负担性的问题如今占据了全国的舆论头条，并影响了每个人的生活。澳大利亚被分成了拥有房产和没有房产的人；家庭拥有房产财富并能传承的人和不能传承的人。
The issue of housing affordability now dominates the national consciousness and has affected the lives of everyone. Australia is divided into those who own a house and those who don't; those whose families have housing wealth to pass on and those who don't.
而且，如今大多数人都相信积累财富的方式是，买一套，然后再购入另一处房产，再之后再购入，或者不断升级自己居住的房产。有时两者兼而有之。
Moreover, most people now believe the way to build wealth is to buy a house, then another one, and another one after that, or to keep upgrading the one you live in. Sometimes both.
房屋已不再等同于澳大利亚历任期最长的前总理Robert Menzies所推崇的住房所有权：“我们内心最美好的冲动之一是让我们拥有一小块属于我们自己的土地，上面有一座房子和一个花园；我们可以在那里休息，在那里与朋友相聚，不会有任何陌生人违背我们的意愿进入其中。”
A home is no longer what Australia's longest-serving prime minister, Robert Menzies, who championed home ownership and what he called "little capitalists," once extolled: "One of the best instincts in us is that which induces us to have one little piece of earth with a house and a garden which is ours; to which we can withdraw, in which we can be among our friends, into which no stranger may come against our will."
澳大利亚正处于“银行统治”之中，四大银行掌控着人们获取货币的途径。它们的利润，取决于其资产的规模和价值的增长。它们的资产规模（即贷款数量）增加是因为澳大利亚人相信增加财富的唯一途径是借入一个或多个房屋价值80%至100%的贷款。而这个价值增长是因为银行的客户相互竞争购买房屋，推高房价，因此也推高了他们的贷款规模。房价上涨越多，银行的利润就越大。
Australia is in the grip of a "bankocracy," in which four major banks control access to money. Their profits depend on the growth in both the volume and value of their assets. The volume of their assets (number of loans) increases because Australians believe the only way to accumulate wealth is to borrow 80% to 100% of the value of one or more houses. The value grows as the banks' customers compete to buy houses, driving up prices and, consequently, the size of their loans. The more house prices rise, the greater the banks' profits.
澳大利亚房地产运作的方式是，联邦政府和银行鼓励对其需求，而州和地方政府则通过限制其供应来实施控制。联邦政府主要通过四种主要方式增加对房屋的需求：首先，通过利率；其次，通过移民；第三，通过对投资者和房主的税收优惠；第四，通过向首次购房者提供补助。
The way real estate works in Australia is that the federal government and banks encourage demand for it while state and local governments restrict the supply of it. Federal government decisions increase demand for housing in four main ways: through interest rates, immigration, tax breaks for investors and homeowners, and grants to first home buyers.
近年来，利率一直是决定房价的主要因素，尽管它们不由联邦政治家控制，而是由独立的澳大利亚储备银行掌控。这是一个由财政部长任命的联邦机构，主要通过房地产来管理经济。也就是说，利率调节了住房的成本，从而调节对住房的需求，并在较小程度上调节供应。通过降低或提高住房的成本，澳大利亚储备银行控制我们在其他方面的支出，从而管理就业水平和通货膨胀水平。而所谓货币政策的结果是，借款人承担了整个经济调整的负担。
In recent years, interest rates have been the main factor determining house prices, although they are not controlled by federal politicians but by the independent Reserve Bank of Australia. It manages the economy mainly through housing, regulating the cost of housing and, to a lesser extent, the supply. The Reserve Bank of Australia controls spending on everything else by reducing or increasing the cost of shelter, governing the level of employment and inflation. The result of this monetary policy is that borrowers bear the entire burden of economic adjustment, particularly those already living on the edge.
图为通过限制新建公寓楼，推高了房价
自2000年以来，推高住房需求的三个主要因素是：移民急剧增加，需要住房的人数增加；资本利得税减免和负扣税，这代表了每年960亿澳元的购房补贴；以及联邦对首次购房者的补助，每年直接增加了15亿澳元。至于供应方面，在2018年，澳大利亚储备银行的研究人员计算出，区域规划限制使得悉尼独立房屋的平均价格上涨了73%，墨尔本上涨了69%。对于公寓而言，悉尼上涨了85%，墨尔本上涨了30%。
Three main things pushed up demand for housing after 2000: a sharp lift in immigration, capital gains tax breaks and negative gearing, and federal first home buyer grants. As for supply, zoning restrictions raised the average price of detached houses by 73% in Sydney, 69% in Melbourne, and 29% in Brisbane, according to RBA researchers in 2018.
一个解决方案是在澳大利亚各大中央商务区的10至30公里范围内显著增加住房密度。然而，在实践中，这将是困难的，甚至是不可能的。在10公里范围内的许多房屋都是维多利亚或爱德华多时期的排屋和别墅，由于文化遗产原因不能拆除。
One not at all simple solution is to significantly increase the density of housing within 10 to 30 kilometres of Australia's CBDs. However, this is challenging, if not impossible, in practice. Many houses within 10 kilometres are Victorian or Edwardian terraces and villas and cannot be torn down for heritage reasons. Moreover, efficient and equitable consolidation of urban blocks, as the YIMBYs put it, is easier said than done. People sell their houses at different times, and no government is going to compulsorily acquire them to suit the timing of a developer.
除此之外，开发商也在阻碍供应。Prosper Australia最近对总体规划社区进行了一项大型研究，发现在平均生产时间9.5年后，开发商仍然保持着76.2%的土地储备空置。与此潜在供应导致的房价下跌相反，平均土地价格通货膨胀率为5.5%。相比之下，工资增长仅为2.4%。
On top of that, the cartel of developers is holding back supply. Prosper Australia recently did a big study of master-planned communities and found that after an average of 9.5 years of production time, developers still held 76.2% of their land banks vacant. Instead of prices falling because of this potential supply, the average land price inflation was 5.5% annually. By contrast, wage growth ran at only 2.4%.
Comentários