2023年10月24日已讀 8 分鐘

墨尔本未来20年将增长近100万人口，住房需求飙升，投资潜力超越悉尼

Melbourne is projected to grow by nearly 1 million people over the next 20 years, leading to soaring housing demand and investment potential surpassing Sydney.

墨尔本

一周房产资讯速递

Melbourne Weekly Real Estate News Highlights

▪ 碧桂园将把部分墨尔本的地产出售给星狮集团

Country Garden to sell part of its Melbourne properties to Frasers Property

▪ 住房需求将随人口数量激增而飙升

Housing demand set to surge with population growth

▪ 一周拍卖

Weekly auctions

1.碧桂园将把部分墨尔本的地产出售给星狮集团

Country Garden to sell part of its Melbourne properties to Frasers Property

中国房地产巨头碧桂园以其在澳大利亚的业务名义Risland Australia，近日向新加坡星狮地产（Frasers）出售了其大规模墨尔本地产Windermere（温德米尔）。这一交易进一步表明碧桂园正逐渐退出澳大利亚市场。

China's real estate giant Country Garden, operating under the name Risland Australia in Australia, has recently sold its large-scale Melbourne property, Windermere, to Singapore's Frasers Property. This transaction further signifies Country Garden's gradual exit from the Australian market.

温德米尔地产占地达366公顷，位于墨尔本西部，碧桂园在7月宣布出售该地产的未开发部分。此外，他们还计划剥离位于悉尼西南部Wollondilly Shire的Wilton Greens地产，该地产价值约20亿澳元。

The Windermere property spans 366 hectares and is located in the western suburbs of Melbourne. In July, Country Garden announced the sale of the undeveloped portion of this property. Additionally, they plan to divest the Wilton Greens property located in the southwestern Sydney area of Wollondilly Shire, which is valued at around AUD 2 billion.

尽管交易价格保密，但消息人士透露，温德米尔交易的售价接近了三个月前市场上流传的25亿澳元的价格。中国最大的私人开发商碧桂园曾于2017年以创纪录的4亿澳元收购了温德姆谷地块。

Although the transaction price remains confidential, insiders revealed that the sale price for Windermere is close to the AUD 2.5 billion price that had circulated in the market three months ago. China's largest private developer, Country Garden, had previously acquired the Windermere site for a record AUD 400 million in 2017.

Risland撤资温德米尔之前，包括保利公司、绿地集团和大连万达等许多负债累累的大型中国开发商纷纷撤离澳大利亚。

Before withdrawing from Windermere, Risland, like many other heavily indebted major Chinese developers including Evergrande, Greenland Group, and Dalian Wanda, has been leaving Australia.

The huge Windermere estate has been partially completed by Country Garden.

自2021年中国房地产市场危机爆发以来，尤其是由于恒大集团违约债务，引发了这些大型运营商纷纷撤离澳大利亚海岸。碧桂园作为其中一家开发商，自出售温德米尔地产后财务状况不断恶化。

Since the outbreak of the crisis in the Chinese real estate market in 2021, particularly due to the debt defaults by Evergrande Group, many of these large operators have been pulling out from the Australian coast. Country Garden, as one of these developers, has seen its financial situation deteriorate since selling the Windermere property.

本周，碧桂园错过了债券息票支付期限，引发了市场对更广泛违约的担忧，因为该公司持有高达110亿美元（约合175亿澳元）的离岸债券。

This week, Country Garden missed the bond interest payment deadline, sparking market concerns about wider defaults, as the company holds offshore bonds amounting to as much as USD 11 billion (about AUD 17.5 billion).

这次撤退为新加坡星狮地产提供了机会，他们准备收购温德米尔地产的两块土地，总面积达170公顷。这些土地可能会产生大约2200个住宅用地，总价值约为8亿澳元。

This retreat has provided an opportunity for Singapore's Frasers Property, which is preparing to acquire two parcels of land within the Windermere property, totaling 170 hectares. These lands may yield approximately 2,200 residential lots, with a total value of around AUD 800 million.

据报道，星狮集团、澳大利亚证券交易所上市的Stockland以及墨尔本开发商Central Equity是竞购温德米尔地产的领先者。这次收购将进一步扩大星狮集团在澳洲业务的规模，包括房地产、公寓和建房出租等庞大住房开发项目。

Reportedly, Frasers Group, ASX-listed Stockland, and Melbourne developer Central Equity are leading bidders for the Windermere property. This acquisition will further expand Frasers Property's extensive housing development projects in Australia, covering real estate, apartments, and build-to-rent ventures.

星狮集团于2016年收购了温德姆谷的一块土地，现在已经建为Mambourin社区，在墨尔本西部拥有强大的影响力。温德米尔地产完全交付后，预计将为4500至5000户家庭提供房产支持、并伴有配套的四所学校和一个零售中心。

Frasers Group purchased a piece of land in Wyndham Vale in 2016, which has since been developed into the Mambourin community, establishing a strong presence in Melbourne's western region. Once Windermere is fully delivered, it is expected to provide housing support for 4,500 to 5,000 families, along with four schools and a retail center.

2. 住房需求将随人口数量激增而飙升

Housing demand set to surge with population growth

PEXA旗下的Informed Decisions分析数据显示，未来20年，全国人口预计将激增740万，其中澳洲人口最多的四个州将迎来强烈的住房需求。

Informed Decisions, a subsidiary of PEXA, presents data analysis indicating that Australia is projected to experience a substantial population increase of 7.4 million over the next 20 years, leading to a significant surge in housing demand.

维多利亚州预计在2041年将迎来最大规模的人口增长，预计将增加200万人。新南威尔士州预计将增加170万人，昆士兰将增加160万人，西澳将增加90.4万人，这都得益于强劲的净移民。

Victoria is expected to achieve the most substantial population growth by 2041, with an estimated increase of 2 million people. New South Wales is projected to grow by 1.7 million, Queensland by 1.6 million, and Western Australia by 904,000, primarily due to robust net migration.

CoreLogic研究总监Tim Lawless表示，这些州的房地产市场将因人口强劲增长而受益，从而支撑房价上涨。他指出：“人口增长是租赁或购房需求的一个重要指标，因为所有这些人都需要住所。因此，除非能够看到适当的住房供应增加，否则人口增长将成为推动房价上涨的基本动力。”

Tim Lawless, Research Director at CoreLogic, asserts that these states' real estate markets will benefit from strong population growth, thereby supporting rising property prices. He notes, "Population growth is a crucial indicator of rental and homeownership demand because all these people need a place to live. Hence, unless there's an adequate increase in housing supply in response, population growth will serve as a fundamental driver of price increases."

到2026年，澳大利亚的人口预计将增加200万人，达到2,770万。到2036年，这一数字将增至3,130万，到2046年将增至3,500万，每年约增加42万人。

By 2026, Australia's population is estimated to increase by 2 million, reaching 27.7 million. This figure is expected to grow to 31.3 million by 2036 and surge to 35 million by 2046, adding approximately 420,000 people each year.

澳大利亚证券交易所上市的电子交易平台 PEXA 的全资子公司.id 的创始人Ivan Motley表示，人口增长是住房供应的关键驱动力。人们会去有地方居住的地方。

Ivan Motley, the founder of .id, a wholly-owned subsidiary of PEXA, emphasizes that population growth is a critical driver of housing supply—people move to places where they can live.

墨尔本预计将迎来160万人口的增长，超过了悉尼的120万人口增长。布里斯班预计将增加97.4万人口，而珀斯预计将增加97.9万人口。为了应对这一人口增长的住房需求，墨尔本估计需要增加72.3万套住房。悉尼需要额外58.2万套住房，布里斯班需要额外38.1万套住房，而珀斯需要33.4万套住房。

Melbourne is anticipated to experience a population growth of 1.6 million, surpassing Sydney's expected increase of 1.2 million. Brisbane is predicted to add 974,000 residents, while Perth is expected to welcome 979,000. To meet the housing demand resulting from this population growth, Melbourne is estimated to require 723,000 additional homes. Sydney needs an extra 582,000 homes, Brisbane requires 381,000, and Perth needs 334,000.

墨尔本的西部、东南部和内城地区预计将迎来最强劲的人口增长，未来20年将增加近100万人口。这一人口增长占维多利亚州总增长的46%，需要增建42.2万套住房。这些地区内，人口增长将集中在Truganina、Mickleham和Cranbourne South等一些郊区。

The western, southeastern, and inner-city areas of Melbourne are expected to witness the most robust population growth, adding nearly 1 million residents over the next 20 years. This population growth accounts for 46% of the total growth in Victoria and necessitates the construction of 422,000 new homes. The population growth is concentrated in certain suburbs within these areas, such as Truganina, Mickleham, and Cranbourne South.

InvestorKit研究主管Arjun Paliwal指出，墨尔本具备中长期房价稳健增长的潜力，因为人口增长增加了需求，虽然过去几年表现不佳。他表示：“我认为投资者应该关注墨尔本等地，因为在通常有着强劲增长历史的城市中，房价增长不高实际上可能是未来的一个积极信号。过去几年，价格上涨幅度相对较小，因此这使得市场变得更具吸引力。我们还看到租金上涨明显，供应有限，这将提高现金流的吸引力。”

Arjun Paliwal, Research Director at InvestorKit, suggests that Melbourne has the potential for steady medium-term property price growth due to increased demand from population growth, despite its underwhelming performance in recent years. He states, "I believe investors should look to areas like Melbourne because in cities that typically have a strong growth history, lower recent price growth can actually be a positive signal for the future. Prices have seen relatively modest increases in recent years, making the market more attractive. We also see a noticeable increase in rental prices, limited supply, which enhances the attractiveness of cash flow."

在悉尼，西南郊区、Blacktown、Parramatta和内城地区预计将迎来最强劲的人口增长。这些地区预计将迎来57.2万人口增加，需要额外26.7万套住房。

In Sydney, the southwestern suburbs, Blacktown, Parramatta, and inner-city areas are projected to experience the most substantial population growth. These areas are expected to accommodate an additional 572,000 people, requiring an extra 267,000 homes.

3.一周拍卖

Weekly auctions

根据维多利亚房地产协会REIV（Real Estate Institute of Victoria）官方统计，截止10月22日周日，整个维州共进行了734场有结果的房产拍卖，总清盘率72%。

According to the official statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), as of Sunday, October 22nd, there were a total of 734 property auctions in the entire state of Victoria, with an overall clearance rate of 72%.

接下来是拍卖的详细情况，在进行的总共734场拍卖中，共有531套房子成功出售！其中381套在拍卖会售出，147套在拍卖前售出，拍卖总价值6.67亿澳元。

Here's a breakdown of the auction results: out of the 734 auctions, 531 properties were successfully sold. Among these, 381 were sold at the auction events, and 147 were sold prior to the auctions, amounting to a total auction value of 667 million Australian dollars.