2023年9月26日已讀 7 分鐘

为什么经济学家认为加息周期已经结束？

Why do economists believe that the interest rate cycle has come to an end?

墨尔本

一周房产资讯速递

Melbourne Weekly Real Estate News

▪ 经济学家认为全球加息周期已经结束

Economists believe the global interest rate cycle has come to an end.

▪ 小型开发商受到重重阻碍

Small-scale developers face significant obstacles.

▪ 一周拍卖

Weekly auctions

1.经济学家认为全球加息周期已经结束

Economists believe the global interest rate cycle has come to an end.

随着越来越多的证据表明全球经济活动正在放缓，经济学家、金融市场和大多数央行都相信不需要进一步加息。上周，美国、英国、日本和瑞士的政策制定者均决定维持利率不变。央行行长们强调，随着大多数西方国家的通胀持续下降，需要保持冷静，而不是进一步收紧政策。

As more evidence points to a slowdown in global economic activity, economists, financial markets, and most central banks believe that further interest rate hikes are not necessary. Last week, policymakers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Switzerland all decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Central bank governors emphasized the need to remain cautious as inflation continues to decline in most Western countries, rather than tightening policies further.

Capital Economics首席全球经济学家Jennifer McKeown表示：“我们已经达到了全球货币政策周期的一个里程碑,全球货币紧缩周期已经结束。”该咨询公司表示，自2020年底以来，全球30家最大的央行中,预计下一季度降息的数量将首次多于加息。金融市场已经得到了这样的信息：交易员现在预计大多数主要央行不会进一步加息，而许多新兴经济体的央行也不会进一步降息。

Jennifer McKeown, Chief Global Economist at Capital Economics, stated, "We have reached a milestone in the global monetary policy cycle, and the global monetary tightening cycle has come to an end." The consulting firm predicts that, for the first time since the end of 2020, there will be more central banks among the world's 30 largest central banks that are expected to cut interest rates in the next quarter than those expected to raise rates. Financial markets have already received this message: traders now anticipate that most major central banks will not raise interest rates further, and many central banks in emerging economies will not cut rates further.

美国花旗银行首席经济学家Nathan Sheets表示，全球经济正在接近增长和通胀放缓的“过渡点”。欧洲央行上周提高了借贷成本，但其首席经济学家Philip Lane周四表示，只要利率“在足够长的时间内维持在当前水平”，就有望击败通胀。这是该行迄今为止最强烈的信号，表明欧元区利率可能已见顶。

Nathan Sheets, Chief Economist at Citigroup, stated that the global economy is approaching a "turning point" where growth and inflation are slowing down. The European Central Bank raised borrowing costs last week, but its Chief Economist, Philip Lane, stated on Thursday that inflation could be beaten as long as interest rates "are maintained at their current levels for a sufficiently long time." This is the ECB's strongest signal yet that eurozone interest rates may have peaked.

暂停加息之际，许多地区的通胀已大幅放缓。在美国，价格增长速度已从2022年6月9.1%的峰值降至上个月的3.7%减半超过一半。未来一周，官方数据预计将显示欧元区9月份通胀率降至接近两年低点4.6%，低于8月份的5.2%和去年10月份峰值10.6%。

At a time when interest rate hikes are on hold, inflation in many regions has slowed significantly. In the United States, the pace of price growth has halved from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.7% last month. Official data expected in the coming week is projected to show that the eurozone's inflation rate for September is close to a two-year low of 4.6%, down from 5.2% in August and the peak of 10.6% in October of the previous year.

澳联储已经决定连续第三个月将现金利率维持在4.1%，为借款人在生活成本危机和抵押贷款压力上升期间提供喘息空间。虽然专家们认为全球的加息周期已经结束，然而在澳洲劳动力市场依然紧张的情况下，货币政策效果的滞后性以及企业的定价决策和工资如何应对经济增长放缓也为未来的实际情况增添不确定性。

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to keep the cash rate at 4.1% for the third consecutive month, providing relief to borrowers amid rising living costs and mortgage pressure. While experts believe that the global interest rate hiking cycle has come to an end, uncertainties remain about the lagged effects of monetary policy and how businesses will adjust pricing decisions and wages in response to the economic slowdown, especially in Australia, where the labor market remains tight.

2. 小型开发商受到重重阻碍

Small-scale developers face significant obstacles.

小型开发商表示，如果银行更愿意为价值500万澳元或以下的项目提供贷款，他们可以将产量增加两倍，每年在大型开发商不会涉足的地方建造多达48,000套新房。

Small developers argue that if banks were more willing to provide loans for projects valued at $5 million or less, they could double their output, constructing up to 48,000 new homes annually in areas that large developers typically avoid.

随着澳洲追求在未来五年内建造120万套新房的雄心勃勃的国家目标，平均每年交付三套新房的小开发商表示，他们可以在增加供应方面发挥更大的作用，尤其是在城市填充区。

With Australia aiming to build 1.2 million new homes over the next five years, small developers, who deliver an average of three new homes per year, say they can play a more significant role in increasing supply, especially in urban infill areas.

Property Developer Network的创始人Rob Flux表示，每年在全国建造16,000套住房的小型开发商有可能将这个数字扩大三倍。但Flux表示，除了面临和大型开发商同样的缓慢审批外，小型开发商还面临着贷款机构的不重视和融资成本上升的困扰。

Rob Flux, founder of Property Developer Network, suggests that small developers, who currently build 16,000 homes annually nationwide, could potentially triple that number. However, Flux notes that, in addition to facing slow approval processes similar to large developers, small developers also struggle with disinterested lenders and rising financing costs.

小型开发商贷款机构CrowdProperty Australia 的一项调查发现，获得项目融资是最大的障碍，阻碍了56%的此类开发商建造更多房屋。筹集股本是第二个障碍，影响了37%的开发商，其次是房产价格占34%。

A survey by the small developer lender CrowdProperty Australia found that securing project financing was the biggest obstacle, hindering 56% of such developers from building more homes. Raising equity was the second hurdle, affecting 37% of developers, followed by property prices at 34%.

Big Impact Group的首席影响官Cheryl Leong 表示，放贷机构通常会设定难以满足的严格要求。她说：“就我们的情况而言，他们希望我们已经签订了租赁协议，以便能够核实收入。他们还设定了租赁空置率的门槛，要求是15%，而不是正常的5%。但最大的障碍是估价。他们给出的估值往往偏低，而且他们还希望你投入更多现金，比如60%的首付。”

Cheryl Leong, Chief Impact Officer of Big Impact Group, stated that lenders often impose stringent requirements that are difficult to meet. She said, "In our case, they want us to have had leases in place to verify income. They also impose a 15% threshold for rental vacancies instead of the normal 5%. But the biggest hurdle is the valuation. They often come in low, and they also want you to put in more cash, like a 60% deposit."

维多利亚州州长Daniel Andrews上周宣布了一项住房计划，旨在未来10年建设80万新房，即每年8万套，到2051年再增加224万套住房。

Victoria's Premier, Daniel Andrews, announced a housing plan last week aiming to build 800,000 new homes over the next ten years, equivalent to 80,000 per year, with an additional 2.24 million homes by 2051.

新州政府还公布了一个价值22亿澳元的住房和基础设施基金，旨在消除建设每年7.5万套房屋所需的障碍，以实现联邦政府未来五年内120万套住房的目标。与此同时，昆士兰州政府已起草计划，到2046年提供另外90万套住房，其中包括20%的经济适用房目标。

The New South Wales government has also unveiled a $2.2 billion housing and infrastructure fund to remove obstacles to building 75,000 homes per year, aligned with the federal government's goal of 1.2 million new homes over the next five years. Meanwhile, the Queensland government has drafted plans to deliver an additional 900,000 homes by 2046, including a 20% affordable housing target.

CrowdProperty Australia 联合创始人兼首席执行官David Ingram表示，小型开发商对资金有巨大需求。“我们已经有大量的申请，我们看到目前每个月收到的项目贷款申请约6000万澳元，平均规模约为300万澳元。有很多项目已经获得了规划批准。但我们不会为每个项目都提供资金，因为显然我们必须对它们进行尽职调查。但对于已经准备就绪的项目来说，肯定有融资机会。”

CrowdProperty Australia's Co-Founder and CEO, David Ingram, emphasized that small developers have a significant need for funding. He stated, "We have a lot of applications. We're seeing around $60 million in project loan applications per month on average, with an average size of around $3 million. Many projects have already received planning approvals. But we won't provide funding for every project, as obviously, we have to conduct due diligence on them. However, for projects that are ready, there are certainly financing opportunities."

3.一周拍卖

Weekly auctions

根据维多利亚房地产协会REIV（Real Estate Institute of Victoria）官方统计，截止9月24日周日，整个维州共进行了724场有结果的房产拍卖，总清盘率76%。

According to official statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), as of Sunday, September 24th, a total of 724 property auctions took place across the entire state of Victoria, with an overall clearance rate of 76%.

接下来是拍卖的详细情况，在进行的总共724场拍卖中，共有553套房子成功出售！其中411套在拍卖会售出，142套在拍卖前售出，拍卖总价值5.89亿澳元。

Here are the detailed auction results: Out of the 724 auctions held, 553 properties were successfully sold. Among these, 411 were sold at the auctions themselves, while 142 were sold prior to the auctions, with a total auction value of AUD 589 million.