2023年7月25日已讀 12 分鐘

维州州长解决租房问题的绝招竟然被抨击！业主表示“他疯了么？”

已更新：2023年8月15日

”Victorian Premier's Solution to Address Rental Housing Issue Faces Criticism!

墨尔本

一周房产资讯速递

Melbourne Weekly Real Estate News Update

▪ 只有墨尔本能在10年内大规模提供建房出租服务

Only Melbourne Can Scale Up Build-to-Rent Services in 10 Years

▪ 业主猛烈抨击维州州长的租金上限计划

Property Owners Strongly Criticise Victorian Premier's Rent Cap Plan

▪ 一周拍卖

Weekly Auctions

1.只有墨尔本能在10年内大规模提供建房出租服务

Only Melbourne Can Scale Up Build-to-Rent Services in 10 Years

资深规划师Brian Haratsis表示，墨尔本是澳大利亚唯一一个到2030年将形成规模化的建房出租市场的城市，因为只有墨尔本拥有足够的合适场地才能开发足够的机构开发和拥有的住房。

Senior planner Brian Haratsis stated that Melbourne is the only city in Australia that will have a large-scale build-to-rent (BTR) market by 2030. This is because Melbourne possesses enough suitable land to develop sufficient institutional rental housing through build-to-rent projects.

Macroplan执行主席的最新估计对这一不断增长的行业规模描绘了一幅更加柔和的图景，到2030年，全国只有52,500套BTR住宅竣工，其中30,000套将位于墨尔本。Haratsis 先生表示：“墨尔本可能成为澳大利亚第一个拥有竞争性 BTR 市场的地区。至少在2030年之前，除了墨尔本，BTR可能在所有司法管辖区都扮演着无足轻重的角色。”

The latest estimates from Macroplan's Executive Chairman portray a more moderate picture for this growing industry. By 2030, only 52,500 BTR residential units will be completed nationwide, with 30,000 of them located in Melbourne. Haratsis mentioned, "Melbourne could become the first region in Australia to have a competitive BTR market. At least until 2030, apart from Melbourne, BTR may play an insignificant role in all other jurisdictions."

维多利亚州首府已经拥有数量最多的已竣工BTR单元，项目包括Grocon的Home Southbank和Richmond开发项目、Mirvac位于维多利亚女王市LIV Munr项目以及Blackstone的Realm Caulfield项目。

The capital of Victoria already has the highest number of completed BTR units, including projects like Grocon's Home Southbank and Richmond developments, Mirvac's LIV Munr project in Queen Victoria Market, and Blackstone's Realm Caulfield project.

From：Financial Review，An artist’s impression (right) of Mirvac’s under-construction LIV Aston build-to-rent project. It is the developer’s second planned project in Melbourne.

根据澳大利亚牛津经济研究院的预测，到2030年，BTR的新开发项目将超过所有其他房地产资产类别，而目前这些住房存量远远低于家庭规模和移民回流所创造的需求。地方议会和州政府越来越多地考虑采取干预措施，通过将房屋退出短期住宿市场来增加租金数量。据《澳大利亚金融评论报》上周报道，墨尔本的Airbnb房源数量多于长期租赁房源数量。

According to forecasts by the Australian Oxford Economics Institute, BTR development projects will surpass all other real estate asset categories by 2030. However, the current housing stock falls far short of the demand created by family sizes and returning immigrants. Local councils and state governments are increasingly considering intervention measures to increase the quantity of long-term rentals by removing housing from the short-term accommodation market. Last week, the Financial Review reported that the number of Airbnb listings in Melbourne exceeds the number of long-term rental listings.

住房经济学家Louis Christopher表示，虽然Airbnb在租赁市场的份额自2021年以来似乎已趋于稳定，但它需要缩小以释放更多的长期租赁库存。他表示：“解决危机的方法是从Airbnb房地产转向长期住宿市场。”但他们从房产中获得的回报减少，只要国内和国际旅行保持强劲，短期出租通常比长期出租收益更快。

Housing economist Louis Christopher stated that while Airbnb's market share in the rental market seems to have stabilized since 2021, it needs to shrink to release more long-term rental inventory. He said, "The solution to the crisis is shifting from Airbnb properties to the long-term rental market." However, they receive reduced returns from long-term rentals as short-term rentals typically yield faster profits, as long as domestic and international travel remains strong.

根据Strata社区协会6月发布的一份报告，人口普查数据显示，2016年至2021年间，投资者对公寓的拥有量有所下降，而自住业主则青睐自住业主，而且随着机构资助的BTR开发的加快，这种情况可能会增加。Haratsis先生的预测——预计到2030年，总存量将接近澳大利亚牛津经济研究院预测的10万套住宅的一半，这表明，尽管人们对BTR的热情日益高涨，但它不太可能在十年内成为可交易的资产类别，墨尔本可能是个例外。

According to a report released in June by the Strata Community Association, census data shows a decline in investors' ownership of apartments from 2016 to 2021, with owner-occupiers favoring self-occupancy. With the acceleration of institutionally funded BTR developments, this situation may increase. Haratsis's predictions indicate that by 2030, the total stock will approach half of the 100,000 homes forecasted by the Australian Oxford Economics Institute, suggesting that while enthusiasm for BTR is growing, it is unlikely to become a tradable asset class within a decade, with Melbourne possibly being an exception.

From：MACROPLAN

Haratsis表示，最重要的是，这对于缓解澳大利亚长期的住房短缺或降低租金的作用很难评估。澳大利亚拥有4,443套机构级BTR住宅，维多利亚州、新南威尔士州、昆士兰州和西澳大利亚州正在筹建近20,000套BTR住宅。他说，这将变得越来越难以扩展。维多利亚现有已竣工BTR单元库存为2245 套，在建项目接近13,100套，与其他城市相比，仍然拥有更多合适的用地，Richmond和Collingwood等内环郊区地理位置优越，提供良好的公共交通，可以支持这种住房类型。

Haratsis stated that the most important aspect is that it's challenging to assess its role in alleviating Australia's long-term housing shortage or reducing rents. Australia currently has 4,443 institutional-grade BTR homes, and Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia are planning almost 20,000 BTR units. He mentioned that expanding this further will become increasingly difficult. Victoria currently has 2,245 completed BTR units in stock and nearly 13,100 units under construction, with more suitable land compared to other cities, particularly in well-located inner suburbs like Richmond and Collingwood with good public transport connectivity to support this housing type.

即便如此，Haratsis 先生表示，与澳大利亚将在 2023年6月至2030年期间开发的104万套新房相比，这段时间内BTR房屋的增加量将很小，从而使住房总存量达到1206万套，并且对同期将增加235万人（其中50万人在墨尔本）的人口影响较小。

Nevertheless, Haratsis stated that even when compared to the 1.04 million new houses expected to be developed in Australia between June 2023 and 2030, the increase in BTR housing during this period will be relatively small, resulting in a total housing stock of 12.06 million units. This will have a minor impact on the population increase of 2.35 million people during the same period (with 500,000 in Melbourne).

2. 业主猛烈抨击维州州长的租金上限计划

Property Owners Strongly Criticise Victorian Premier's Rent Cap Plan

投资者和澳大利亚最大的房地产集团警告称，Daniel Andrews冻结租金和限制上涨的计划将迫使投资者放弃房地产市场，并使租金危机变得更加严重。Andrews周日证实，他的政府正在制定一项住房计划，预计将允许房东每两年仅提高一次租金，并可能对任何租金上涨设置上限。

Investors and Australia's largest real estate group have warned that Daniel Andrews' plan to freeze rents and impose rent increase restrictions will force investors to abandon the property market and exacerbate the rental crisis. Andrews confirmed on Sunday that his government is developing a housing plan that is expected to allow landlords to increase rents only once every two years and may set a cap on any rent increases.

该计划预计还将包括对酒店住宿和短期租赁（包括 Airbnb）征税，每次预订最高浮动至5澳元。预计将为负债累累的州政府筹集近60,000间可用客房的数百万澳元。政府认为，税收将增加长期租赁市场的供应，但拟议的举措将给已经难以满足快速增长的抵押贷款还款的房东带来进一步的压力。投资者出售的房产比例全年稳步上升，6月份悉尼达到创纪录的40%，墨尔本则接近创纪录的36%，而一年前这一比例约为30%。这些出售给自住业主的房产都减少了本已紧张的租赁房产供应。

The plan is also expected to include a tax on hotel accommodation and short-term rentals (including Airbnb), with a maximum fluctuation of 5 Australian dollars per booking. This is expected to generate millions of dollars for the heavily indebted state government from nearly 60,000 available rooms. The government believes that the tax revenue will increase the supply in the long-term rental market, but the proposed measures will add further pressure to landlords who are already struggling to meet rapidly increasing mortgage repayments. The proportion of properties sold by investors has steadily increased throughout the year, reaching a record 40% in Sydney and almost a record 36% in Melbourne in June, compared to about 30% a year ago. These properties sold to owner-occupiers have reduced the already tight rental property supply.

维多利亚州政府已经对2019年6月或之后开始的协议实行为期一年的租金上涨冻结，昆士兰州Palaszczuk政府也于4月也采取了这一举措。“实行一年冻结之后……我们显然认为这个领域需要改革，我是第一个说，在这么多不同领域，总是有更多工作要做的，” Andrews周日表示。

The Victorian state government has already implemented a one-year rent freeze for agreements that started in June 2019 or later, and the Palaszczuk government in Queensland also took this measure in April. "After a one-year freeze...we clearly believe that this area needs reform, and I am the first to say that in so many different areas, there is always more work to be done," Andrews said on Sunday.

From：9News

尽管Andrews先生拒绝排除租金冻结和上限或旅游税（包括对 Airbnb 租金的征税）的可能性，但他表示，该计划还将简化规划决策，以允许“更快地做出正确的决策”并增加供应。他说。“我们可以做很多不同的政策方针和不同的事情。我们正在缩短该列表……几个月后我们将有更多细节透露。我认为这将是我们州有史以来在提供更多住房和更多住房选择方面最大的变革之一。当我在社区中走动时，我认为没有什么比为我们的住房市场提供更多供应更重要的了，因为有了更多供应，租房者、那些想买房的人、他们的父母、家庭以及所有关心住房的人都会有更多的选择。”

Although Mr. Andrews refused to rule out the possibility of rent freezes, rent caps, or a tourism tax (including taxing Airbnb rentals), he stated that the plan will also streamline planning decisions to allow "faster and more accurate decision-making" and increase supply. He said, "We can have many different policy guidelines and different things. We are shortening the list...in a few months, we will have more details to reveal. I think this will be one of the biggest changes in providing more housing and more housing choices in the history of our state. As I walk around the community, I believe there is nothing more important than providing more supply to our housing market because with more supply, renters, those looking to buy homes, their parents, families, and everyone concerned about housing will have more choices."

然而，Ray White董事总经理Dan White猛烈抨击了维州引入租金上限的提议，他告诉《澳大利亚金融评论报》，随着越来越多的房东加入投资性房产的大抛售，结果将是出租的房产更少。White先生在回应有关此举的猜测时表示：“租赁库存减少会给租房者带来更大的压力，这就是结果。为什么要玩对国民经济、投资和建设如此重要的东西？即使是猜测也是一件鲁莽的事情。希望他们的理智能够占上风。”

However, Dan White, the Managing Director of Ray White, fiercely criticized the proposal to introduce rent caps in Victoria. He told the Australian Financial Review, "A reduction in rental stock will result in greater pressure on renters; that's the result. Why play around with something so important to the national economy, investment, and construction? Even speculation is reckless. Hopefully, common sense will prevail."

Cate Bakos是墨尔本的一名为投资者提供建议的买家经纪人，拥有多处投资房产组合，她表示，该提议将使租赁供应问题变得更糟，并对妈妈和爸爸投资者造成最严重的打击。“这是一场灾难，一个糟糕的主意，”兼任澳大利亚买家倡导者协会主席的Bakos女士说。“当我们已经存在供应问题时，这将进一步打击投资者的积极性。维多利亚已经受到了相当严重的打击，尤其是新冠疫情期间，”她说。“从那时起，我们就进行了非常繁重的租金改革，然后我们还增加了额外的土地税。事情已经很困难了，对于许多已经在偿还抵押贷款方面苦苦挣扎的人来说，这将成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。”

Cate Bakos, a buyer's advocate in Melbourne providing advice to investors and owning multiple investment properties, stated that the proposal will worsen the rental supply issue and have the most severe impact on mom and dad investors. "It's a disaster, a bad idea," said Bakos, who also serves as the Chair of the Australian Buyers' Advocacy Association. "When we already have supply issues, this will further dampen investors' enthusiasm. Victoria has already suffered quite severely, especially during the COVID-19 period," she said. "Since then, we've had very heavy rental reforms, and then we added additional land taxes. Things have been tough, and this will be the final straw for many people already struggling with mortgage repayments."

最近几周，由于利率、土地税和市政费上涨造成的财务压力，出售房产的房东数量激增。Ray White记录称，本周末在悉尼拍卖会上出售房产的投资者翻了一番，达到30%，而在墨尔本的拍卖卖家中，投资者占32%。White先生表示，维州政府甚至谈论租金上限，这都加剧了投资者的紧张情绪。“将他们描绘成贪婪的房东无济于事，” White先生说。引入租金上限会造成“完全混乱”，因为每个租赁协议都是不同的。“有些租金高于市场价格，有些则低于市场价格。你会如何实施这样的计划？”

In recent weeks, the number of landlords selling properties has surged due to financial pressures from rising interest rates, land taxes, and municipal fees. Ray White records indicate that investors selling properties at Sydney auctions doubled to 30% over the weekend, while investors accounted for 32% of Melbourne's auction sellers. Mr. White stated that even discussing rent caps in Victoria adds to investors' nervousness. "Portraying them as greedy landlords doesn't help," he said. Introducing rent caps will cause "complete chaos" since each lease agreement is different. "Some rents are above market rates, some are below. How would you implement such a plan?"

维州反对党领袖 John Pesutto 表示，Andrews政府八周前刚刚在州预算中引入了110亿澳元的税收，因此已经沉迷于依赖税收。“维多利亚州人正处于住房危机之中，Daniel Andrews的答案却是征收住房税，以偿还他的联邦债务，”他说。“他似乎用新税来回答了每个问题。这项新税将进一步惩罚维州人。就在八周前，我们的预算中增加了110亿澳元的新税来填补预算漏洞。就业税、学校税、租金税，今天我们正在考虑维多利亚州人最无力承担的住房税。”

Victoria's opposition leader, John Pesutto, said that the Andrews government introduced $11 billion in taxes in the state budget just eight weeks ago, and is now addicted to revenue. "Victorians are in the middle of a housing crisis, and Daniel Andrews' answer is to impose a housing tax to pay off his federal debt," he said. "He seems to answer every question with a new tax. This new tax will further punish Victorians. Just eight weeks ago, we added $11 billion in new taxes to the budget to cover budget shortfalls. Payroll tax, school tax, rental tax—today, we are considering a housing tax that Victorians can least afford."

Pesutto还表示，政府需要能够促进供应和投资的答案。他警告说，简化规划决策的计划意味着地方政府在应该有发言权的时候被排除在决策过程之外。“我们需要的解决方案能够促进住房投资，而不是阻碍住房投资，新的住房税向世界各地的投资者发出了一个信号……维多利亚州不是一个投资的地方，”他说。“与我交谈过的每个人，从租房者到投资者，似乎都同意租金上限和其他限制将阻碍住房供应的投资。对于租房者来说，这最终意味着从长远来看，租金实际上会上涨，因为住房供应将会减少。这是Andrews政府非常危险的举动。”

Pesutto also stated that the government needs answers that can facilitate supply and investment. He warned that the plan to streamline planning decisions means local governments are excluded from the decision-making process when they should have a say. "We need solutions that encourage housing investment, not hinder it. The new housing tax sends a signal to investors worldwide...Victoria is not a place to invest," he said. "Everyone I talk to, from renters to investors, seems to agree that rent caps and other restrictions will hinder investment in housing supply. For renters, this ultimately means that rents will actually rise in the long run because housing supply will decrease. This is a very dangerous move by the Andrews government."

3.一周拍卖

Weekly Auctions

根据维多利亚房地产协会REIV（Real Estate Institute of Victoria）官方统计，截止7月23日周日，整个维州共进行了449场有结果的房产拍卖，总清盘率74%。

According to official statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), as of Sunday, July 23rd, a total of 449 property auctions were conducted across the entire state of Victoria, with an overall clearance rate of 74%.

接下来是拍卖的详细情况，在进行的总共449场拍卖中，共有332套房子成功出售！其中249套在拍卖会售出，117套在拍卖前售出，拍卖总价值3.32亿澳元。

Out of the 449 auctions, 332 properties were successfully sold, with 249 sold under the hammer at the auction and 117 sold prior to the auction. The total value of properties sold at auction amounted to AUD 332 million.