2023年7月18日讀畢需時 9 分鐘

Good news! Rental growth in most areas of Victoria has slowed down!

好消息！维多利亚州大部分地区租金增长速度已经放缓！

墨尔本

一周房产资讯速递

Melbourne Weekly Property News Update

▪ “反季节”的拍卖量预示着可能出现的困境抛售

"Out-of-season" auction volumes indicate potential distress sales

▪ 维多利亚州大部分地区租金增长速度已经放缓

Rental growth in most areas of Victoria has slowed down

▪ 一周拍卖

Weekly auctions

1.“反季节”的拍卖量预示着可能出现的困境抛售

"Out-of-season" auction volumes indicate potential distress sales

最近拍卖量的异常增加，可能表明12次加息的累积影响正在迫使无法跟上借贷成本的买家将房屋重新投放进入市场。

The recent abnormal increase in auction volumes may indicate that the cumulative impact of 12 interest rate hikes is forcing buyers who cannot keep up with borrowing costs to put their homes back on the market.

数据提供商CoreLogic周日表示，“非季节性增长”使截至周六当周的预定拍卖数量从一周前的1428起增至1518起，并且未来一周可能会增加至1850起拍卖。AMP Capital首席经济学家Shane Oliver表示：“可能出现的情况是人们期待已久的‘困境抛售’增加。可变利率的进一步上升，尤其是人们从固定利率向可变利率或固定利率向更高利率的持续转变，可能会开始体现在房源数量的增加中。”

Data provider CoreLogic reported on Sunday that the "out-of-season growth" has increased the number of scheduled auctions for the week ending Saturday from 1,428 the previous week to 1,518, with a potential increase to 1,850 auctions in the coming week. Shane Oliver, Chief Economist at AMP Capital, stated, "The potential scenario is an increase in long-awaited distress sales. Further increases in variable rates, especially as people transition from fixed rates to variable rates or from fixed rates to higher rates, may begin to be reflected in the increase in housing supply."

澳大利亚储备银行在过去14次会议中12次将基准贷款利率从历史最低的0.1%提高到4.1%，这使得拥有低固定利率抵押贷款但即将到期的买家的商业贷款利率飙升。

The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the benchmark interest rate from a historic low of 0.1% to 4.1% in 12 out of the past 14 meetings, leading to a surge in commercial loan rates for buyers with low fixed-rate mortgages that are soon to expire.

在以东海岸为主的市场需求依然强劲，近四分之三的待拍卖房屋在本周至周六期间售出。悉尼的清盘率变现不错为74.9%，虽然低于一周前的初步数字 75.6%，有564场预定拍卖。CoreLogic表示：“初步清盘率下降似乎是由于卖家缺乏信心，撤出率上升至12.7%，而拍卖中通过的房产比例则下降至 12.4%。”

The demand in the predominantly east coast market remains strong, with nearly three-quarters of the properties scheduled for auction sold between this week and Saturday. Sydney's clearance rate performed well at 74.9%, although slightly lower than the preliminary figure of 75.6% from the previous week, with 564 scheduled auctions. CoreLogic stated, "The decrease in the preliminary clearance rate seems to be due to sellers lacking confidence, resulting in an increased withdrawal rate of 12.7%, while the proportion of properties sold at auction decreased to 12.4%."

在墨尔本，初步清盘率从一周前的72.8%升至 78%，预定拍卖数量从571次增至636次。经纪人兼拍卖师Angela Limanis表示，Cheltenham东南郊区的一栋五居室房屋在一次拍卖中以超出底价 130,500澳元的价格以1,480,500澳元的价格售出，四名竞标者竞购这栋1980年代的房屋，该房屋为家庭提供了充足的空间。“尽管这所房子需要一点点更新，但它的建造确实很坚固，买家看到了这栋房子未来的潜力，” Limanis女士在谈到雷诺登街 27 号的房子时说道。

In Melbourne, the preliminary clearance rate rose from 72.8% the previous week to 78%, and the number of scheduled auctions increased from 571 to 636. Real estate agent and auctioneer Angela Limanis mentioned that a five-bedroom house in the southeastern suburb of Cheltenham was sold at auction for AUD 1,480,500, exceeding the reserve price by AUD 130,500. Four bidders competed for this 1980s house, which provides ample space for families. "Although the house needs a bit of updating, it is structurally sound, and buyers see the future potential of the property," said Ms. Limanis when referring to the property at 27 Renault Street.

From：Domain，27 Renowden Street, Cheltenham sold with the price of $1,480,500.

新南威尔士州首府也取得了强劲的业绩。周六，上北岸 Pymble 的一栋六居室房屋在拍卖会上以433万澳元的价格售出，比底价高出38万澳元，面积为 1333平方米。Ray White经纪人Jessica Cao表示，年轻的家庭正在争夺Warrabri Place 3 号的住宅。“一开始没有人愿意出价，起价为350万澳元，两名竞标者将价格提高到385万澳元，然后开始势头强劲，”Cao女士说。“一旦触及保留地，两名新的竞标者立即加入，竞标开始了。20 秒之内，它就涨到了420万澳元左右。最后，有两个买家争得不可开交，最终出价竞争到了1000澳元起叫。”

The capital of New South Wales has also achieved strong performance. On Saturday, a six-bedroom house in Pymble on the upper North Shore was sold at auction for AUD 4.33 million, exceeding the reserve price by AUD 380,000. The property spans an area of 1,333 square meters. Jessica Cao, a real estate agent from Ray White, stated that young families were competing for the residence at 3 Warrabri Place. "Initially, no one was willing to bid, and the starting price was AUD 3.5 million. Two bidders raised the price to AUD 3.85 million, and then the momentum picked up," said Ms. Cao. "Once it reached the reserve, two new bidders immediately joined, and the bidding began. Within 20 seconds, it reached around AUD 4.2 million. In the end, two buyers were fiercely competing, with bidding increasing in increments of AUD 1,000."

2. 维多利亚州大部分地区租金增长速度已放缓

Rental growth in most areas of Victoria has slowed down

维多利亚州大部分租金曾经飞速增长的地区现增长速度已经放缓，这表明大流行造成的影响正在减退。Domain数据显示，大墨尔本地区以外地区的租金中位数在6月季度为每周450澳元，三个月内每周仅上涨4澳元，但在过去12个月中每周涨幅更大，为30澳元。

Rental growth in most areas of Victoria, where rents had previously skyrocketed, has now slowed down, indicating a waning impact of the pandemic. Data from Domain reveals that the median rent for areas outside Greater Melbourne was AUD 450 per week in the June quarter, with a marginal increase of only AUD 4 per week over the past three months. However, over the past 12 months, rents increased by a larger margin of AUD 30 per week.

Ararat地区的房屋租金降幅最大，为每周340澳元，下降5.6%。其次是维多利亚州西南部的 Moyne，该地区的租金下降了2.3%。在35个市议会区域中，有6个区域的租金要么停滞不前，要么下降，但在封锁时代的繁荣时期，这6个区域的租金都飙升了26%至40%。

Ararat experienced the largest decrease in house rents, dropping by 5.6% to AUD 340 per week. Moyne, located in the southwest of Victoria, followed with a 2.3% decline in rents. Among the 35 local government areas, six regions either saw stagnant or declining rents. However, during the boom times of the lockdown era, rents in these six regions had surged by 26% to 40%.

其他地区的租金继续飙升。Strathbogie的房屋租金涨幅最大，上涨了21.6%，达到每周450澳元。紧随其后的是 Swan Hill，涨幅为15.6%，而该州北部的Moira则涨幅为13.2%。Domain 研究和经济主管Nicola Powell博士表示，增长率放缓将缓解地区租户的生活。“这些地区在六月季度总体上创下了新高，但我想说的是，我们看到增长速度正在放缓，”她说。“特别是对于房屋来说。但总体而言，总的主题是区域市场的压力正在释放。”

Rents in other areas continued to rise. Strathbogie recorded the highest rental growth, with a 21.6% increase, reaching AUD 450 per week. Swan Hill followed closely with a growth rate of 15.6%, while Moira in the northern part of the state saw a growth rate of 13.2%. Dr. Nicola Powell, Research and Economics Director at Domain, stated that the slowdown in growth will provide some relief for regional tenants. "These regions hit record highs in the June quarter overall, but what I would say is that we're seeing the pace of growth slow down," she said. "Particularly for houses. But overall, the general theme is that the pressure in the regional market is starting to ease."

From：Domain Rent Report

Powell表示，自封锁结束以来，墨尔本居民不再大量逃离内城区，国际移民的回归正在将租赁需求转移回都市区。尽管如此，一些地区仍然难以负担得起。“其中一些区域市场的租金要价发生了巨大变化。当地的承受能力已经大大捉襟见肘，” Powell 说。

Powell stated that since the end of the lockdown, Melbourne residents are no longer fleeing the inner city in large numbers, and the return of international migrants is shifting rental demand back to urban areas. However, some areas are still struggling with affordability. "There have been huge changes in rental asking prices in some regional markets. Local affordability has become a major concern," said Powell.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank首席经济学家David Robertson表示，在疫情爆发初期，维州地区的租金大幅上涨，但随着负担能力恶化，商定的压力和价格有所缓解。他说 “各地的租金状况仍然非常紧张，但最新数据确实表明首府城市的租金成本和水平有进一步上涨得势头，而一些偏远地区的租金成本和水平则有所下降。”

David Robertson, Chief Economist at Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, explained that rent prices in Victorian regions surged during the early stages of the pandemic, but as affordability worsened, the pressure and prices have eased. He stated, "Rental conditions remain very tight across the board, but the latest data does indicate further upward momentum in rental costs and levels in capital cities, while rental costs and levels in some remote areas have declined."

Great Ocean Properties的上市经纪人兼物业经理 Michelle McDonald表示，像Surf Coast的租赁市场已经降温，空置房产比12个月前还要多。她说：“这可能是因为市场上有一些以前从未出租过的新房产，也可能是因为有房产业主试图回应人们因为数量不足而无法出租的消息。” 对于潜在的租房者来说，找房的人数并不像新冠疫情期间那么多。可以从一些小学、幼儿园的人数中找到线索，这可能表明有些家庭已经搬出该地区。

Michelle McDonald, a listed agent and property manager at Great Ocean Properties, mentioned that the rental market, like Surf Coast, has cooled down, with more vacant properties compared to 12 months ago. She said, "This could be because there are some newly built properties that have never been rented before on the market, or it could be property owners responding to the news of properties not being able to be rented due to lack of demand." The number of people looking for rentals is not as high as during the COVID-19 period, and clues can be found from the number of students in some primary schools and kindergartens, which may indicate that some families have moved out of the area.

From：Jason South, Surf Coast

然而并非所有地区都是如此。McGrath Mansfield 校长Kate McDougall表示，提供的高收益度假租赁对附近 Strathbogie的房东很有吸引力。“我们全年都有旅游业，我们处于一个非常活跃的的旅游区，那些想要进行长期租赁的人会进入利润丰厚的Airbnb市场。”

However, not all areas are the same. Kate McDougall, Principal of McGrath Mansfield, stated that offering high-yield holiday rentals is attractive to landlords in the nearby Strathbogie area. "We have tourism all year round, and we are in a very active tourism region. Those who want to engage in long-term rentals enter the profitable Airbnb market," she said.

3.一周拍卖

Weekly auctions

根据维多利亚房地产协会REIV（Real Estate Institute of Victoria）官方统计，截止7月16日周日，整个维州共进行了398场有结果的房产拍卖，总清盘率78%。

According to official statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), as of Sunday, July 16th, a total of 398 properties were auctioned in the entire state of Victoria, with an overall clearance rate of 78%.

接下来是拍卖的详细情况，在进行的总共398场拍卖中，共有312套房子成功出售！其中227套在拍卖会售出，86套在拍卖前售出，拍卖总价值3.24亿澳元。

Here are the detailed auction results: out of the 398 auctions, a total of 312 properties were successfully sold! Among them, 227 were sold at the auction, and 86 were sold prior to the auction, with a total auction value of AUD 324 million.