全球楼市低迷期结束！澳大利亚公寓价值增长速度超越独立屋！
墨尔本
一周房产资讯速递
Weekly News
▪ 全球楼市低迷期结束
Global Real Estate Slump Comes to an End
▪ 利率上升，公寓价值的增长速度快于独立屋
Rising Interest Rates: Apartment Values Surpassing Townhouses in Growth Rate
▪ 一周拍卖
Weekly Auction Update
1.全球楼市低迷期结束
Global Real Estate Slump Comes to an End
在过去的三个月里，澳大利亚的房价一直在上涨。与此同时，美国的房屋价值指数也从今年一月份的低点上涨了1.6%，房屋建筑商股价的涨幅是整体股市的两倍。在欧元区，房地产市场看起来相对稳定。
In the past three months, house prices in Australia have been on the rise. At the same time, the U.S. Housing Price Index has also increased by 1.6% from its low point in January this year, with the stock prices of home builders outperforming the overall market. In the eurozone, the real estate market appears relatively stable.
摩根大通的分析师在最近一份关于美国的报告中写道：“从现在开始，住房对GDP增长的拖累应该是微不足道的。” 高盛的专家在谈到韩国时也表示：“我们相信近期房地产市场低迷对私人消费的负面拖累峰值可能已经过去。”
Analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a recent report on the United States, "Housing should be a negligible drag on GDP growth going forward." Similarly, experts at Goldman Sachs, when discussing South Korea, stated, "We believe that the recent slump in the real estate market's negative impact on private consumption may have peaked."
曾经有经济学家预测房价会出现大幅下跌。然而房屋平均价值比五年前上涨了41%，这是在2022年3月，即美联储开始加息以对抗通货膨胀的月份。全球央行的政策利率平均上升了三个百分点以上，导致抵押贷款成本上升，经济增长放缓。
There were economists who predicted a significant decline in house prices. However, average home values have increased by 41% compared to five years ago, which was in March 2022, the month when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation. The average policy interest rates of central banks worldwide have risen by over three percentage points, leading to increased mortgage costs and slower economic growth.
全球房价肯定已经处于较高水平。与最近的峰值相比，它们可能低3%或者经过通胀调整后的8%至10%。
Global house prices are certainly at relatively high levels. They may be 3% lower than recent peaks or adjusted for inflation, around 8% to 10%.
Source：Financial Review
然而，这一次的情况与以往不同，因为这次房价上涨是在大流行期间的繁荣之后出现的，价格上涨速度创下有史以来最快的记录。因此，实际房价仍然远高于2019年的水平，许多千禧一代和Z世代曾经梦想通过房价崩盘来购买第一套房子，他们无疑感到失望。
However, this time the situation is different as the surge in house prices has occurred after a period of prosperity during the pandemic, with the fastest recorded pace of price growth ever. As a result, real estate prices remain significantly higher than they were in 2019, leaving many millennials and Gen Z disappointed who had hoped for a housing market crash to afford their first homes.
在典型的全球房地产市场不景气期间，一些国家可能经历一段困难时期。在金融危机后，爱尔兰的房价下跌了一半，美国的房价下跌了20%。但这一次，那些表现不佳的地区表现得更好了。例如，在旧金山，由于技术型人才已经迁往佛罗里达和德克萨斯，房价比峰值低了十分之一。然而，它们的跌势已经停止，每栋房屋的平均成本仍将超过110万美元（160万美元）。
During typical global real estate market downturns, some countries may go through a challenging period. After the financial crisis, house prices in Ireland dropped by half, and in the United States, they declined by 20%. However, this time, the underperforming regions have fared better. For example, in San Francisco, where tech talent has shifted to Florida and Texas, prices are down by a tenth from their peak. Nevertheless, the downward trend has halted, and the average cost per home still exceeds $1.1 million ($1.6 million).
在澳大利亚，房价在2020年至2021年下跌了7%。但最近的一次又一次拍卖表明市场正在复苏。比如，在墨尔本、悉尼等地，多次出现高于挂牌价格两倍的成交价格出现。房地产市场的问题似乎没有抑制更广泛的经济发展。虽然住房投资的增长疲软对经济增长有一定拖累，但影响并不大。
In Australia, house prices experienced a 7% decline from 2020 to 2021. However, recent auctions indicate a market recovery. In places like Melbourne and Sydney, multiple instances of sale prices double the listing price have been observed. The challenges in the real estate market do not seem to hinder broader economic development. While the subdued growth in housing investment has some drag on economic growth, its impact is not significant.
Sources：ABC NEWS
如今对房屋的需求仍然非常旺盛。有三个因素可以解释：移民、家庭财务状况和人们的喜好。
The demand for housing remains strong today, driven by three factors: immigration, household financial conditions, and people's preferences.
首先是移民，在澳大利亚，净移民数量是大流行前水平的两倍，加拿大也是如此。新移民的需求支撑着房地产市场。研究表明，每增加10万名净移民，澳大利亚的房价就会上涨1%。
Firstly, immigration plays a significant role. In Australia, net migration is double the pre-pandemic levels, and Canada experiences a similar trend. The demand from new immigrants supports the real estate market. Studies have shown that for every additional 100,000 net immigrants, Australian house prices rise by 1%.
第二个因素是家庭的强大财务状况。富有的人推动了房地产繁荣，金融危机后的抵押贷款法规使信用较差的买家难以获得贷款。许多借款人受益于过去低利率时期的锁定。即使利率上升，发达国家的偿债支付与收入的平均比率仍低于大流行前的水平。因此，与以往经济衰退期间相比，不得不缩减规模或出售房屋的家庭数量有所减少。
The second factor is robust household financial conditions. Affluent individuals drive the real estate boom, and post-financial crisis mortgage regulations have made it difficult for buyers with poor credit to obtain loans. Many borrowers have benefited from locking in low rates during the previous low-rate period. Even with rising interest rates, the debt service-to-income ratio in developed countries remains lower than pre-pandemic levels. Consequently, compared to previous economic downturns, there are fewer households forced to downsize or sell their homes.
大流行病本身也起到了一定作用。在2020年至2021年期间，许多家庭大幅削减消费，导致积累了价值数万亿澳元的“超额储蓄”。这些储蓄也为家庭提供了更高利率的缓冲。各国的过剩储蓄存量与房价弹性之间存在正相关关系。例如，加拿大人在大流行期间积累了大量储蓄，而房价最近趋于稳定。相比之下，瑞典人积累的储蓄相对较少，他们的房地产市场也较为疲软。
The pandemic itself has also played a role. During the period from 2020 to 2021, many households significantly reduced their consumption, leading to the accumulation of "excess savings" worth trillions of Australian dollars. These savings also provide a buffer for households against higher interest rates. There is a positive correlation between the surplus savings and housing price resilience in various countries. For example, Canadians accumulated substantial savings during the pandemic, and their housing prices have recently stabilized. In contrast, Swedes accumulated relatively fewer savings, and their real estate market remains sluggish.
第三个因素与人们的喜好有关。英格兰银行的研究表明，人们需求的转变，包括对家庭办公空间或阁楼健身房的渴望，解释了英国房价在大流行期间增长的一半。许多国家，包括澳大利亚在内，家庭的平均规模已经缩小，这表明人们不太愿意合租。在通货膨胀率较高时期，许多人可能希望将资金投资于实物资产，如房地产和基础设施，以保值实际货币。所有这些因素可能意味着住房需求将保持高于大流行前水平，限制价格的潜在下跌。
The third factor is related to people's preferences. Research from the Bank of England suggests that shifts in demand, including a desire for home office spaces or loft gyms, explain half of the growth in UK house prices during the pandemic. In many countries, including Australia, the average household size has decreased, indicating a reluctance to share accommodations. During periods of higher inflation, many people may prefer to invest their funds in tangible assets such as real estate and infrastructure to preserve their value. All these factors suggest that housing demand may remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, limiting the potential for price declines.
央行行长们可能也有意提高利率或保持高利率，直到更高的货币成本真正开始产生影响。让房主感觉更加紧张可能会迫使他们削减开支，从而有助于抑制通货膨胀。
Central bank governors may also be intentionally raising or maintaining higher interest rates until higher monetary costs start to have a real impact. Making homeowners feel more anxious could force them to cut back on spending, thereby helping to curb inflation.
然而，如今依旧有理由相信最糟糕的情况已经过去。消费者信心在历史新高，失业率低，并且政府支出增加。此外，尽管利率上升，但全球央行将采取行动，以确保市场稳定。在这种情况下，房价可能仍会上涨，但可能会以较温和的速度。
However, there are still reasons to believe that the worst is behind us. Consumer confidence is at historical highs, unemployment rates are low, and government spending is increasing. Additionally, despite rising interest rates, global central banks will take action to ensure market stability. In this scenario, housing prices may continue to rise, but at a more moderate pace.
2. 利率上升，公寓价值的增长速度快于独立屋
Rising Interest Rates: Apartment Values Surpassing Townhouses in Growth Rate
CoreLogic 的数据显示，由于利率和生活成本的增加，需求转向负担得起的市场，过去三个月，全国39%的郊区的单元房价值增长幅度高于独立屋。在所分析的所有悉尼郊区中，近四分之一的单元房价格涨幅超过独立房，在墨尔本所有郊区的三分之一以上的房价涨幅超过独立房。
According to data from CoreLogic, over the past three months, 39% of suburbs across the country have seen a higher increase in unit prices compared to townhouses, driven by rising interest rates and living costs. Among all the analyzed suburbs in Sydney, nearly one-quarter of unit prices have outperformed townhouses, while in over one-third of Melbourne suburbs, unit price growth has exceeded that of townhouses.
CoreLogic研究总监Tim Lawless 表示，未来几个月，郊区单元房击败独立房的比例可能会扩大。他指出，人们开始转向公寓，因为公寓市场份额增加，可以获得更高的资本收益。尽管独立屋的表现仍普遍优于单元房，但随着负担能力下降，这种趋势可能会持续下去。
Tim Lawless, Research Director at CoreLogic, suggests that the proportion of suburbs where unit prices outpace townhouses may expand in the coming months. He points out that people are shifting their focus towards apartments as the market share for units increases, offering higher capital gains. Although detached houses generally perform better than units, this trend may continue as affordability declines.
在整个布里斯班，超过五分之二的布里斯班郊区和超过一半的珀斯郊区的单元房资本收益增长率超过独立屋。Lawless先生表示，随着利率走高，整个单位部门的更实惠的价格点以及持续低供应的预期将为单元房价值提供一些支持。他认为，随着更多家庭因高利率和生活成本承受财务压力，需求可能偏向单元房。特别是希望退出租赁市场的首次购房者，可能会被中高密度地区相对实惠的价格所吸引。与此同时，中高密度地区的供应不足，未来几年情况可能变得更糟，因为尚未看到供应响应和批准的早期阶段。
In Brisbane, over two-fifths of Brisbane suburbs and over half of Perth suburbs have witnessed higher capital growth rates for units compared to townhouses. Lawless notes that as interest rates rise, the more affordable price points in the entire unit sector, along with expectations of low supply, will provide some support for unit values. He believes that as more households face financial pressures due to higher interest rates and living costs, the demand may lean towards units. First-time buyers, especially those looking to exit the rental market, may be attracted to the relatively affordable prices in medium- to high-density areas. Meanwhile, the undersupply in these areas could worsen in the coming years as supply responses and early-stage approvals are yet to be seen.
图片来源：NDL
与过去三个月的独立屋相比，悉尼东区、内西区和萨瑟兰区的单元房价格上涨最快。Little Bay单元房的涨幅是独立房的三倍多，涨幅为8.8%，而独立房的涨幅为2.4%。在肯辛顿，单元房涨幅几乎是后者的两倍，达到6.9%，而在Concord West，单元房涨幅是其三倍，达到4.4%。
In Sydney, the unit prices in the Eastern Suburbs, Inner West, and Sutherland Shire have experienced the fastest growth compared to townhouses over the past three months. The unit prices in Little Bay have seen an increase of over three times that of townhouses, with a growth rate of 8.8% compared to 2.4% for townhouses. In Kensington, the unit price growth is nearly twice that of townhouses, reaching 6.9%, while in Concord West, the unit price growth is three times higher, reaching 4.4%.
在墨尔本，Altona、Altona South和Newport的单元房价格涨幅超过房价涨幅的十倍以上，分别上涨了7.5%、7.1%和7.3%。同期，这些郊区的房价下跌了0.6%至1%。
In Melbourne, the unit prices in Altona, Altona South, and Newport have surged more than ten times the growth rate of house prices, increasing by 7.5%, 7.1%, and 7.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, the house prices in these suburbs have declined by 0.6% to 1% during the same period.
根据CoreLogic的数据，价格差距仍然存在。去年7月，独立屋和单元房价格之间的差距达到创纪录的32.9%，但在最近的低迷时期，截至5月，这一差距已缩小至27.5%。全国房屋中位价比单元房中位价高出约165,600澳元，低于去年7月创下的202,400澳元的历史新高。然而，与COVID之前相比，房屋价值与单元价值之间的差距仍然较大。在COVID-19袭击之前的10年中，房屋价值与单元价值之间的平均差异仅为7.8%。
According to data from CoreLogic, the price gap between houses and units still exists. In July of last year, the price gap reached a record high of 32.9%. However, during the recent sluggish period, as of May, this gap has narrowed to 27.5%. The median price of houses nationwide is approximately AUD 165,600 higher than the median price of units, lower than the historical high of AUD 202,400 set in July of last year. Nevertheless, the gap between house values and unit values remains significant compared to pre-COVID levels. Over the ten years leading up to the COVID-19 outbreak, the average difference in value between houses and units was only 7.8%.
3.一周拍卖
Weekly Auction Update
根据维多利亚房地产协会REIV（Real Estate Institute of Victoria）官方统计，截止6月11日周日，整个维州共进行了238场有结果的房产拍卖，总清盘率82%。
According to the official statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), as of Sunday, June 11th, there have been a total of 238 properties auctioned in the entire state of Victoria, with an overall clearance rate of 82%.
接下来是拍卖的详细情况，在进行的总共238场拍卖中，共有196套房子成功出售！其中153套在拍卖会售出，42套在拍卖前售出，拍卖总价值2.08亿澳元。
Next, let's look at the detailed auction results. Out of the total 238 auctions conducted, a total of 196 properties were successfully sold. Among them, 153 were sold during the auction itself, and 42 were sold prior to the auction. The total value of properties sold through auctions amounts to AUD 208 million.
另外还有223套私人出售的房产，私卖总价值1.83亿澳元。
In addition, there were 223 privately sold properties with a total value of AUD 183 million.
独栋屋清盘率83%，共举行拍卖169场，中位房价$102万澳元。
The clearance rate for houses was 83%, with a total of 169 auctions conducted, and a median house price of AUD 1.02 million.
单元房清盘率暂未更新，共举行拍卖65场，中位房价$84.3万澳元。
The clearance rate for units has not been updated yet. There were a total of 65 auctions conducted, with a median unit price of AUD 843,000.
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