澳大利亚解决住房供应和负担能力问题迫在眉睫！
墨尔本
一周房产资讯速递
▪ 随着供应萎缩，“着急”的购房者恐陷入困境
With dwindling supply, "anxious" homebuyers may find themselves in a predicament
▪ 房地产行业的巨头们的担忧
Concerns among real estate industry giants
▪ 一周拍卖
Weekly auctions
1.随着供应萎缩，“着急”的购房者恐陷入困境
With dwindling supply, "anxious" homebuyers may find themselves in a predicament.
过去一周，挂牌拍卖的房屋中有四分之三已售出，随着买家追逐待售房产数量的减少，清盘率有所上升。
Over the past week, three-quarters of the listed auction properties have been sold, and as the number of available properties for buyers to pursue decreases, the clearance rate is increasing.
由于冬季经济放缓、学校放假以及对进一步加息的担忧，总体挂牌量有所下降，比前一周下降 8.1%，比去年同期下降12.9%。
Due to the slowdown in the winter economy, school holidays, and concerns about further interest rate hikes, the overall number of listings has declined by 8.1% compared to the previous week and 12.9% compared to the same period last year.
最新研究警告称，不断飙升的代理费和印花税正在阻止越来越多的房主搬家，住房成交量的下降将对房价造成上行压力。根据投资银行Jarden的研究，过去二十年里，购买房产的成本——印花税、代理费、律师费和上市成本的增长速度是收入增长速度的五倍。该研究的发布增加了州和领地政府从印花税转向土地税的压力，是鼓励更多人搬家并减少进入房地产市场的最大障碍之一。
Recent research warns that skyrocketing agent fees and stamp duties are preventing more homeowners from moving, and the decline in housing transactions will exert upward pressure on house prices. According to research by investment bank Jarden, over the past twenty years, the cost of purchasing a property—stamp duties, agent fees, legal fees, and listing costs—has grown at a rate five times faster than income growth. The release of this research adds pressure on state and territory governments to shift from stamp duties to land taxes, which is one of the biggest obstacles to encouraging more people to move and reducing entry barriers into the real estate market.
Jarden首席经济学家Carlos Cacho表示，自 2000年以来，悉尼房屋的平均交易成本已从 20,000澳元增加到100,000澳元以上。房价上涨导致购房成本占可支配收入的比例达到80%左右，而二十年前这一比例为28%。在此期间，购买墨尔本均价房屋的成本从15,000澳元增加到80,000澳元，布里斯班的平均房价从7000澳元增加到 50,000澳元。
Carlos Cacho, Chief Economist at Jarden, stated that the average transaction cost of a house in Sydney has increased from AUD 20,000 to over AUD 100,000 since 2000. The rising house prices have caused the proportion of income spent on purchasing a home to reach around 80%, compared to 28% two decades ago. During this period, the cost of purchasing an average-priced house in Melbourne has increased from AUD 15,000 to AUD 80,000, and in Brisbane, the average house price has risen from AUD 7,000 to AUD 50,000.
From：Jarden
成本的增加导致人们平均居住时间激增。Cacho先生估计，现在住宅的平均持有期限已超过20年，而 2000年代初期为12年。Cacho表示，代理费（通常作为售价的一部分收取）和印花税是罪魁祸首。由于印花税起征点并未随着房价的上涨而上涨，因此平均印花税的增长甚至超过了房价的增长。2022 年，新南威尔士州的购房者平均支付了49,300澳元的印花税，比2019年的水平增加了50%。
The increasing costs have led to a significant increase in the average tenure of residential properties. Mr. Cacho estimates that the average holding period for homes has now exceeded 20 years, compared to 12 years in the early 2000s. Cacho points to agent fees (typically charged as a percentage of the sale price) and stamp duties as the culprits. As the stamp duty thresholds have not risen with house prices, the average stamp duty growth has even surpassed the growth in house prices. In 2022, homebuyers in New South Wales paid an average of AUD 49,300 in stamp duty, a 50% increase compared to the levels in 2019.
Cacho表示，购买房产的成本不断增加是市场上挂牌房屋减少的主要原因之一，而人口老龄化和价格上涨也是部分原因。他表示：“负担能力恶化意味着存押金需要更长的时间，升级也变得更加困难。从人口统计数据来看，30岁至50岁的黄金年龄升级者的比例有所下降，而与此同时，65岁以上的长期持有者的比例却有所增加。”
Cacho states that the increasing cost of purchasing properties is one of the main reasons for the decrease in listed properties on the market, along with population aging and rising prices. He said, "Deteriorating affordability means longer saving periods for deposits, and upgrading becomes more difficult. Looking at the demographic data, the proportion of upgraders in the golden age range of 30 to 50 years has decreased, while the proportion of long-term holders aged 65 and above has increased."
From：Jarden
Jarden预计，2030年房屋年成交量将降至仅占住宅存量的4.5%，这意味着交易量比接近5%时减少约62,000套。“从长远来看，关键的挑战将是应对即将到来的人口变化，特别是当我们开始看到婴儿潮一代逐渐退休并走向老年时，他们需要缩小规模。”州政府高度依赖印花税作为收入来源，并且无视经济学家一再呼吁放弃这种效率极低的税收。
Jarden predicts that by 2030, the annual housing turnover will decrease to only 4.5% of the residential stock, which means a reduction of approximately 62,000 properties compared to when the turnover was close to 5%. "In the long term, the key challenge will be addressing the upcoming demographic changes, particularly as we start to see the baby boomer generation retire and downsize. They need to scale down," Cacho explains. State governments heavily rely on stamp duties as a source of revenue and ignore economists' repeated calls to abandon this highly inefficient tax.
随着买家争夺不断减少的库存，一些房屋的销售量超出了其储备，例如悉尼Lane Cove的三居室房屋，周末以276万澳元的价格售出。CoreLogic的数据显示，在全国范围内，初步清盘率较前一周上升4.2个百分点，全国首府城市市场仅有1418套房产挂牌拍卖。悉尼的初步清盘率为75.6%，挂牌量从前一周的676套降至564套。在墨尔本，拍卖数量略有上升，清盘率小幅上升至76%。
With buyers competing for diminishing inventory, some properties are being sold for prices exceeding their reserves, such as a three-bedroom house in Lane Cove, Sydney, which sold for AUD 2.76 million over the weekend. Data from CoreLogic shows that the preliminary clearance rate nationwide has increased by 4.2 percentage points compared to the previous week, with only 1,418 properties listed for auction across the capital city markets. Sydney's preliminary clearance rate stands at 75.6%, with listings dropping from 676 the previous week to 564. In Melbourne, auction numbers have slightly increased, and the clearance rate has risen to 76%.
上周，澳大利亚储备银行将加息周期暂停至少一个月，尽管经济学家仍预计现金利率将走高。SQM Research 创始人、资深房地产市场分析师Louis Christopher表示，最近一次现金利率上涨的暂停与4月份早些时候的暂停有很大不同，这导致了当时对房地产市场的信心重燃。
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia paused its interest rate hikes for at least a month, although economists still expect cash rates to rise. Louis Christopher, founder of SQM Research and a senior property market analyst, stated that the recent pause in interest rate hikes is different from the pause earlier in April, which reignited confidence in the real estate market.
“我认为这一次情况有点不一样了。他们已经暂停加息了，但我认为市场上对风险的警惕心有所增强。澳联储是否真的达到了利率峰值？有人担心还会继续加息，” Christopher先生说。“当然，我们正在达到固定利率抵押贷款利率重置的峰值。这些人将从2%以上的固定利率重置为6%以上的可变利率。这是一个重大打击。”尽管目前还没有迹象表明不良销售有所回升，但随着借贷成本上升，一些卖家“比其他卖家更希望出售”。
"I think this time it's a bit different. They have paused the rate hikes, but I believe there is an increased sense of caution in the market. Has the RBA actually reached peak rates? There are concerns that further rate hikes may continue," said Mr. Christopher. "Certainly, we are reaching the peak of fixed-rate mortgage resets. These people will be transitioning from fixed rates of over 2% to variable rates of over 6%. That's a significant blow." While there are currently no signs of a rebound in distressed sales, some sellers are "more motivated to sell than others" as borrowing costs rise.
2. 房地产行业的巨头们的担忧
Concerns among real estate industry giants.
根据最新的澳新银行/房地产委员会调查显示，房地产行业对政府需要解决全国住房供应和负担能力问题的担忧已飙升至历史新高。供应危机使包括税收改革和基础设施交付在内的所有其他问题相形见绌，48%的受访者将其视为联邦政府面临的最关键问题，比上一季度调查上升了7个百分点。在州一级，49%的人将其列为政府要解决的首要议程，这一比例上升了6个百分点。
According to the latest survey by ANZ and the Property Council, concerns within the real estate industry about the need for the government to address the national housing supply and affordability issue have reached an all-time high. The supply crisis has overshadowed all other issues, including tax reform and infrastructure delivery, with 48% of respondents considering it the most critical issue facing the federal government, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous quarter. At the state level, 49% of people listed it as the top priority for the government, a rise of 6 percentage points.
澳新银行和房地产委员会表示，随着移民推动人口增长、房价上涨和租金飙升，长期规划的繁文缛节和当前的经济限制共同导致了住房供应问题。澳新银行高级经济学家Adelaide Timbrell 表示，开发商陷入了困境，尽管住房需求强劲，但利率上升和成本压力却阻碍了项目的发展。“对于开发商来说，未来的工作时间表并不是真正的问题。需求并不是真正的问题。问题在于这种需求是否能够以一种在风险基础上合理、在利润基础上合理的方式得到满足，” Timbrell女士告诉《澳大利亚金融评论报》。她表示，在成本上涨的背景下，住宅领域的大量工作积压会给一些项目带来压力，而为开发采购材料和劳动力仍然很困难。
ANZ and the Property Council state that long-term planning bureaucracy and current economic constraints, coupled with population growth driven by immigration, rising property prices, and skyrocketing rents, have collectively led to the housing supply problem. Adelaide Timbrell, Senior Economist at ANZ, states that developers are facing challenges as rising interest rates and cost pressures hinder project development despite strong housing demand. "For developers, the future pipeline of work is not really the problem. Demand is not really the problem. The issue is whether that demand can be met in a way that is reasonable on a risk basis and reasonable on a profit basis," Ms. Timbrell told the Australian Financial Review. She notes that a significant backlog of work in the residential sector, combined with cost increases, puts pressure on some projects, and procuring materials and labor for development remains challenging.
From：ANZ, Property Council
整体信心保持稳定，增加1分至114分，100分视为中性。该季度报告对744名房地产专业人士进行了调查，涉及从人员配置水平到工作预期和融资渠道等一系列主题。
Overall confidence remains stable, increasing by 1 point to 114, with 100 being neutral. The quarterly report surveyed 744 real estate professionals on various topics, ranging from staffing levels to job expectations and funding channels.
调查显示，随着加息周期预期结束的临近，利率预期略有改善，尽管整体利率前景仍然非常悲观。本周现金加息暂停，但澳新银行预计今年现金利率将达到4.6%的峰值，并且在2024年底之前不太可能出现下降。
The survey reveals a slight improvement in interest rate expectations as the end of the expected rate hike cycle approaches, although the overall interest rate outlook remains highly pessimistic. This week's pause in cash rate hikes notwithstanding, ANZ predicts that cash rates will peak at 4.6% this year and are unlikely to decrease before the end of 2024.
房地产委员会首席执行官Mike Zorbas表示，规划系统不足也是创造更多供应的障碍，并指出，根据最近的分析，如果没有昂贵的分区、规划和建设繁文缛节，过去20年本可以额外交付130万套房屋。
Mike Zorbas, CEO of the Property Council, highlights the inadequacy of the planning system as another barrier to creating more supply and points out that recent analysis suggests that over the past 20 years, an additional 1.3 million dwellings could have been delivered without expensive zoning, planning, and construction bureaucracy.
Zorbas先生还指出，新南威尔士州生产力委员会最近的分析表明，供应量增加10%通常会导致住房成本降低25%。他说：“州、领地和地方政府需要负责提高在所有市场领域提供住房的运行率，包括社会住房和经济适用房。我们需要国家住房和规划改善目标，我们需要澳大利亚政府的澳大利亚住房未来基金在参议院获得通过。”
Mr. Zorbas also notes that recent analysis by the NSW Productivity Commission indicates that a 10% increase in supply typically results in a 25% reduction in housing costs. He says, "States, territories, and local governments need to take responsibility for increasing the delivery rates across all market sectors, including social housing and affordable housing. We need national housing and planning improvement targets, and we need the Australian Government's Australian Housing Future Fund to pass through the Senate."
3.一周拍卖
Weekly auctions
根据维多利亚房地产协会REIV（Real Estate Institute of Victoria）官方统计，截止7月9日周日，整个维州共进行了385场有结果的房产拍卖，总清盘率76%。
According to official statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), as of Sunday, July 9th, a total of 385 properties were auctioned in the entire state of Victoria, with an overall clearance rate of 76%.
接下来是拍卖的详细情况，在进行的总共385场拍卖中，共有291套房子成功出售！其中208套在拍卖会售出，94套在拍卖前售出，拍卖总价值2.91亿澳元。
Here are the detailed auction results: Out of the 385 auctions conducted, a total of 291 properties were successfully sold! Among them, 208 were sold at the auction itself, and 94 were sold prior to the auction, with a total auction value of AUD 291 million.
另外还有141套私人出售的房产，私卖总价值1.11亿澳元。
In addition, there were 141 privately sold properties, with a total value of AUD 111 million.
独栋屋清盘率73%，共举行拍卖260场，中位房价$106万澳元。
The clearance rate for detached houses was 73%, with a total of 260 auctions held and a median house price of AUD 1.06 million.
单元房清盘率80%，共举行拍卖121场，中位房价$71.5万澳元。
The clearance rate for units was 80%, with a total of 121 auctions held and a median unit price of AUD 715,000.
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