2024年房地产市场应该关注的重要趋势！

Key Trends to Watch in the Real Estate Market in 2024!

墨尔本

一周房产资讯速递

Melbourne Weekly Real Estate News

▪ 大量移民和供应短缺，使FOMO情绪卷土重来

Mass migration and supply shortages bring back FOMO sentiment

▪ 2024年房地产市场应该关注的重要趋势

Key Trends to Watch in the Real Estate Market in 2024

1.大量移民和供应短缺，使FOMO情绪卷土重来

Mass migration and supply shortages bring back FOMO sentiment

FOMO，The fear of missing out (FOMO) ，是指一种害怕错过的恐慌情绪。

FOMO, or the fear of missing out, refers to a panic sentiment of being afraid of missing out.

尽管利率较高，但对强劲的资本增长和由创纪录的移民引起的租金大幅增长的期望，正在吸引越来越多像Marc Woolfson这样的房地产投资者重返市场。他认为，由于住房供应有限和移民高涨，房地产价值有很好的增长机会。

Despite higher interest rates, the expectation of strong capital growth and significant rental increases due to record migration is enticing a growing pool of property investors like Marc Woolfson back into the market. He believes that there are excellent opportunities for property values to increase strongly due to limited housing supply and high migration.

“我计划在未来几个月内购买至少两处房产，可能在黄金海岸，以增加我的投资组合，因为供应无法满足如此大的需求。我认为在中期内，我们将迎来房价和租金的强劲增长。”Woolfson先生已经拥有四处分布在澳大利亚各地的投资物业。他表示，最新的利率上涨让一些购房者感到不安，这为像他这样的投资者提供了购买机会。“一些购房者因为担心利率上涨而犹豫不前，但如果你有足够的借款能力，我认为现在是一个很好的购房时机，因为竞争减少了。”

"I plan to buy at least two more properties, likely on the Gold Coast, to add to my portfolio over the coming months because there's no way supply can keep up with all that demand. I think we're in for strong price and rental growth over the medium term."Mr. Woolfson already owns four investment properties spread across Australia. He mentioned that the recent interest rate increase has made some homebuyers hesitant, creating buying opportunities for investors like himself." Some buyers are holding back because they're worried about interest rate rises, but if you have the borrowing capacity, I think now is a great time to buy because there's less competition."

图片来源：Chris Hopkins，图为激烈的租赁市场

自年初以来，房地产投资者在推动贷款增长方面基本上超过了自住房屋所有者，这与房价回升同时发生。根据澳大利亚统计局的数据，今年1月至9月，新的投资信贷价值增长了15.7%，而同期自住贷款仅增长了4.6%。

Since the beginning of the year, property investors have largely overtaken owner-occupiers in driving lending growth, coinciding with the rebound in home values. According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the value of new investment credit increased by 15.7% from January to September this year, compared to a 4.6% lift in owner-occupier borrowing during the same period.

CoreLogic研究总监Tim Lawless表示：“我认为投资者在市场上可能比我想象的更具韧性，因为他们正在为中长期的增长做准备。他们看到了在中期内由于住房供应将受到限制，从而可能获得长期资本收益的潜力。租赁市场可能会保持紧张，因此租金收入应该是稳定的。随着库存水平的上升和买家竞争的减弱，他们还可以利用明年可能更有优势的购房条件。”

"I think investors are probably more resilient in the marketplace than what I give them credit for because they're positioning for medium to long-term growth," said Tim Lawless, CoreLogic research director." They see the potential in making long-term capital gains based on the fact that housing supply will be constrained over the medium term. Rental markets will probably remain tight, so rental income should be consistent. They can also take advantage of what's likely to be stronger buying conditions coming into next year as stock levels rise and competition among buyers becomes less significant."

根据Westpac-MI Consumer House Price Expectations Index，在过去的三个月到11月间上涨了4.8%，对价格增长的预期已经达到了周期高点。该指数现在处于强烈乐观的领域，超过70%的消费者预计在未来12个月内房价将继续上涨。

Expectations for price growth reached a cyclical high, climbing by 4.8% over the past three months to November, according to the Westpac–MI Consumer House Price Expectations Index. The index is now in strongly optimistic territory, with over 70% of consumers expecting prices to continue rising over the next 12 months.

图片来源：Westpac，图为房价期待值曲线

投资者、买方代理InvestorKit的研究总监Arjun Paliwal表示，投资者主要是被对失去良机的担忧和对利率已经触顶的期望所推动。他说：“我们在10月份创下了有史以来最大的月度业绩，新投资者客户创下了新纪录，然后在11月份再次打破了这一纪录，所以显然，投资者目前非常活跃。我们的客户告诉我们，他们不想错过下一个上升阶段，特别是那些错过了COVID繁荣的人。他们还想在所有人回归市场之前进入市场，因此有一些机会性的购买。”

Property investor and head of research at buyer's agency InvestorKit, Arjun Paliwal, said investors were mostly motivated by the fear of missing out and expectations that interest rates had peaked. "We've had our biggest month ever in October, in terms of onboarding new investor clients, and then broke that record again in November, so clearly, investors are very active at the moment," he said. "Our clients told us they don't want to miss out on the next upswing, particularly those who missed the COVID boom. They also want to get in before everyone returns to the market, so there's a bit of opportunistic buying."

Judo Bank首席经济顾问Warren Hogan表示，投资者中也出现了投机活动的迹象。他说：“市场上确实存在一种投机性的元素，我称之为FOMO加强版，因为不断有关供不应求和高移民的新闻。我认为有关人口增长、住房危机以及澳大利亚是否能够满足这些住房需求的消息对人们投资的动机产生了很大的影响。这让他们相信，尽管房地产价值显然非常昂贵 - 即使在去年下跌了8%左右之后 - 但未来相当长时间内住宅物业会短缺，这让他们充满信心。因此，他们不仅害怕房价会上涨，而且可能由于认为供应短缺而实际上无法获得房产。”

Judo Bank chief economic adviser Warren Hogan said there has also been signs of speculative activity among investors. "There's a real sense of a speculative element in the market, which I call FOMO on steroids because of the relentless news about undersupply and high migration," he said. "I think news about high population growth, the housing crisis, and Australia's ability to meet those housing needs had a big impact on people's motivation to invest. It gives them the confidence that despite the fact that property values are clearly very expensive – even after the sort of 8% falls from last year – the idea that we're going to have a shortage of residential property well into the future gives them a lot of confidence. So it's not just fear that prices will go up, but they may not be able to actually get a property due to the perceived shortage."

2. 2024年房地产市场应该关注的重要趋势

Key Trends to Watch in the Real Estate Market in 2024

Domain房产分类巨头的首席研究与经济学家Nicola Powell承认2023年是让她感到意外的一年。就在去年的这个时候，很少有专家相信在有史以来最快的利率紧缩周期面前，房价会飙升至新的历史高点。但是，历史上移民的大幅增长和新住宅建设的历史性减缓加剧了多年来不断积累的激烈住房供应短缺问题。

Domain's Chief of Research and Economics, Nicola Powell, acknowledges that 2023 was a year that caught her by surprise. Just a year ago, few experts believed that prices could surge to new all-time highs amid the fastest interest rate-tightening cycle in living memory. However, a historic rise in immigration and a historical slowdown in new home construction compounded a vicious housing supply shortage that had been building for years.

那么，2024年会给房地产专家带来怎样的惊喜呢？

So, what surprises could 2024 hold for housing pundits?

Powell表示我们不应忽视人口激增的长期影响。Domain表示尽管净海外移民已经达到峰值，但一年内超过500,000名移民的长期影响将会存在。在这个极度紧张的租赁市场中找不到心仪房源的移民可能会寻求购房。但是鉴于住房供应几乎没有迹象会改善，无论哪种情况都会带来一个明显的问题：更多的买家争夺相似数量的房屋。

Powell says we should not discount the long-term impacts of that population growth surge. Domain, partly owned by Nine Entertainment, publisher of The Australian Financial Review, says that while net overseas migration has peaked, there will be a longer-term effect from more than 500,000 migrants arriving in a year. Migrants who arrived and were able to find a lease in the extraordinarily tight rental market may look to buy, while migrants arriving next year will find it very difficult to get a rental. But with little sign that housing supply is going to improve, either scenario creates an obvious problem: even more buyers fighting over a similar pool of houses.

尽管最近的数据（包括CoreLogic的每日房价指数）表明房价增长在最近几周有所放缓，但Domain的预测显示，明年澳大利亚首都城市的住宅房价将增长6%至8%，单位房价将增长2%至3%。

While the most recent data – including CoreLogic’s daily house price indices – suggest a moderation in house price growth in recent weeks, Domain’s forecasts call for growth of 6 per cent to 8 per cent for houses in Australian capital cities next year, and 2 per cent to 3 per cent growth in units.

这反映了Powell预计将在2024年影响住房市场状况的趋势，包括强劲的人口增长的持续影响，并可能对房价产生上升压力。

This speaks to the four big trends that Powell expects to influence housing market conditions in 2024 – including the continued effects of strong population growth – and which are likely to put upwards pressure on house prices.

2024年另一个要关注的重大趋势将是租赁市场的一个可能的转折点，随着承受更高租金的租户试图购房，通过利用首次购房者的激励措施，以合租方式购房，或以比最初打算更为可负担的郊区为目标，或者选择公寓而非独栋房屋的方式。

Another big trend to watch in 2024 will be a likely tipping point in the rental market, as renters struggling with higher rents try to buy, either by tapping first home buyer incentives, buying under house-sharing arrangements, or finding a more affordable way into home ownership, such as by targeting a cheaper suburb than originally intended or settling for a unit rather than a house.

这种从租赁市场的转变是完全合理的。但同样，这将导致更多的购房者争夺相对静态的房产数量，对价格产生上升压力。

Such shifts out of the rental market are totally logical. But again, they will result in more buyers competing for a relatively static number of properties, keeping upwards pressure on prices.

Powell在2024年关注的最后一个趋势是利率。她认为，任何降息都将引发需求增加；监管机构设置的用于确保银行对借款人偿还能力进行压力测试的抵押服务能力缓冲的调整将产生类似的效果。但是需求如果没有更多的供应是无法提高可负担性的。

The last trend Powell is watching in 2024 is interest rates. Any cut, she argues, will spark increased demand; an adjustment to the mortgage serviceability buffer that the prudential regulator puts in place to ensure banks stress test borrowers’ capacity to pay would have a similar effect. But demand without more supply won’t help affordability.

这里的明显信息是，住房供应需要改善，而且要迅速。在这方面，令Powell感到鼓舞的是，政治正更加关注在这个问题上，政策变化正在发生，包括联邦政府计划在未来十年内建造120万栋房屋，以及维多利亚、新南威尔士和澳大利亚首都领地的规划法规变化。

The clear message here is that housing supply needs to improve – and quickly. On this front, Powell is encouraged that political attention is now more focused on the issue, and policy changes are happening, including the federal government’s plan to build 1.2 million houses over the next decade, and changes to planning laws in Victoria, NSW, and the ACT.

随着2025年联邦选举的临近，又一年的住房困境的前景将增加采取行动的政治压力。

With a federal election looming in 2025, the prospect of another year of housing pain will increase the political pressure for action.